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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (8970)	9/29/1999 5:35:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 15132

I have been thinking about the sentiment issue. Bob has been saying that at The Top, complacency will reign. His statements follow closely all other accounts of market tops that I've read (e.g., articles, business editorials, C. MacKay, books on 29' etc.). It has troubled me that at the recent tests of the old high, sentiment has not been exceedingly complacent. There was a lack of euphoria. On the other hand: Now, with the markets testing the recent lows, there appears to be a lack of fear of a bear market. I recall last summer and fall. Even when the market was still off less than 10% there was real fear. Some Godzilla was going to scoop down and eat Mr. Market! Not now, though. There is very little fretfulness even though the fundamentals are very different from last Fall and any movement upward from here could be a "dead cat bounce. Ciao, David Todtman

To: marc ultra who wrote (8970)	9/29/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

RE: "Your point about 93/94 though is well taken but I guess the fundamentals were different particularly in terms of valuation." Very true. P/E's were lower in 93/94 than they are now. However, P/E's were also lower in 1976 then they are now. RE: "Could the move back toward the highs in Sept have been the final test and the only thing that didn't work out was the model signaling a sell? I don't know which is why I am playing it half way and am probably a little below 50% equities at the moment." FWIW, I'm playing it cautious too. Lot's of cash and waiting for a buying opportunity. Best wishes, I2

To: marc ultra who wrote (8970)	9/29/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

At todays close, From their highs: Dow down 9.82% S&P down 10.60% NAZ down 5.43%% S&P went through Mr BSL's 1280 area like a moderately warm knife through butter. I think one thing that should be considered by anyone ready to pile in in and buy this dip is if we did in fact enter a bear after a final test of the highs in September things can get very ugly very fast. I can't remember a time when I felt I have no idea where the market is going to go, even if it was a wrong idea. I would say though that monetary, valuation and seasonal factors give me a queasy feeling Marc