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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27910)	9/29/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis good post this morning and yes I have been noticing EMC and just about every other stock on my wish list. None of them will come down to what I am willing to pay for them. This is part of the problem and why I am still not bullish. I still expect a bounce but the bounces so far have been minimal and there hasn't been any capitulation in my wish list stocks. I do think we almost absolutely have to bounce sometime here since levels are starting to reach ridiculously low values in the indicators. I have some stocks that are in single digits for stochastic readings and Chande reading of negative 100%. Howver I don't think we will put in a floor until we either get some great news, or we have a panic selloff that puts some fear in the market. No real outlook for now since my data is coming in now and I haven't run through the charts yet. I did want to post this tidbit from Don Hays post today. This is classic <GGGG> ...We believe that history will reveal that the interlude between the two bullish seasons began in April 1998, when most stocks began their bear markets. I think those future observers will be amazed at the amazing camouflage that took place, as fewer and fewer stocks carried the bullish banner after that April 1998 peak. But they will see that those stocks were the ones that had the biggest influence on the widely followed indices, so the public and the "talking heads" kept believing that the miracle of the US stock market was still alive. Lemmings must be a distant cousin of the investing public, because they certainly share the blind belief that something wonderful lies right over that cliff, and NOTHING can change their minds as they scramble over the edge giggling all the way. ...... << Good Luck, Lee

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27910)	9/29/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, i have a slight problem with the cycle low...it was scheduled for yesterday and as it hasn't been taken out yet i figure we could still consider it as valid. however, it was originally supposed to be a cycle HIGH and the last ST cycle turned down long before it should have. so there's a chance that a higher degree cycle has taken over and has negative connotations. there seems to be a lack of liquidity developing for various reasons. while short positions in the tech area are high, the high multiple stocks can not indefinitely stay that way if liquidity is diminishing. yes, the nutz look good, but not uniformly so. and while the momentum is with these stocks, i still think their valuations are outrageous. that doesn't mean they cannot run for a while longer, but i fear they will need the support of the broader market at some point, otherwise they will just enter into one of their violent corrective phases once again. OT i know the Brauenerhof of course, but not the Pension...no need for me to stay in one in Vienna... regards, hb