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To: re3 who wrote (65217)	9/29/1999 7:43:00 PM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Elliot Wave - Short Term Update.. The pattern continues which sees an early day rally followed by late day selling. There is little new information to add to our previous forecast, which remains firmly on track. The [Dow Industrials] continue to trace out an impulse wave down from the recent all-time high. Minute wave three of the pattern appears to have bottomed at yesterday's low of 10081, right in our listed support of 10004-10083. Minute wave four either ended at today's intraday high of 10335, or will do so in the next several days after consolidating further. Near-term resistance is 10465-10612. Wave four should not move above the bottom of the previous first wave of 10733 (Sept. 2). Thereafter, wave five down will draw the index below 10000 and complete the five wave declining sequence from the all-time high. The equivalent resistance in the [December S&P 500] is 1310-1313.60, in the cash index it is 1296.45-1301, in the OEX it is 682.38-684.50, in the Dow Diamonds it is 104 18/32-104 31/32 and in the S&P Spiders it is 129 3/4-130 12/32. The [December S&P 500] remains on track to fall into the 1229.60-1245.20 area at a minimum (that's if the current decline is only a correction in a still in force bull market). Our top view is that this initial five waves down will be the building block for an even bigger move lower. Regardless, Elliott tells us that once five waves are complete, the market should experience its largest reaction since the sequence began. So once five down is finished, we should see the largest bounce since the August highs. Wave five has yet to unfold, so we remain bearish the blue-chip averages. A series of sharply rising bottoms on the 1-day advances versus declines chart for the NYSE often precedes a short-term rally. This pattern has unfolded since the September 21 low with two sharply rising bottoms on September 23 and 28. This should signal that wave four will see another leg higher tomorrow. Otherwise, a breakdown below today's 10211 low would constitute a signal "failure" for this pattern and may lead to a steep sell-off. We must pay attention to this potential, since the overall health of the market remains so weak. The [December NASDAQ 100] and other OTC indices show the same pattern as the blue-chip averages. Wave four either ended at Monday's highs or will do so in the next days or so. The next significant move should be a fifth wave down that carries the futures to 2350 or lower. The 100 cash index should fall to 2325 or lower. The resistance we listed Monday evening remains in effect: 2485 in the 100 futures, 2453.94 in the 100 cash and 122 3/4 in the QQQ's. We remain bearish against these levels. [December Bonds] traced out the pattern we've been discussing the past several Updates. Minor wave 4 of the ending diagonal triangle pattern (see chart) topped right on schedule at last Friday's high of 115-16. The fifth and final leg of the pattern is now underway from this high. The bare minimum requirement for its completion is a print below the bottom of the third wave of 112-16. Since wave three of the ending diagonal is shorter than wave one, bonds must bottom above 111-20 otherwise wave three becomes the shortest wave (not allowed), which means the pattern is something other than we think. So the ultimate low should form in the 111-20 to 112-16 area. No matter, the near-term trend remains down with key resistance now at the recent wave four high of 115-16. Once bonds do bottom, we should expect a multi-month rally to correct the entire sell-off from the October 1998 high. A push now above 115-16 would tell us that bonds have recorded their fifth wave low and this solid multi-month rally is already underway. The [U.S. Dollar Index] continues to follow our forecast closely. Prices remain on track to fall toward 97.72-98.16 support, at a minimum. This decline should complete Minor wave C down of Intermediate wave (2). The break of 98.90 (Sept. 2 low) further supports our bearish stance and increases our confidence. Resistance is now 99.95-100.11. The key resistance level for the bears is 101.27, which should not even be approached. Only a very unexpected rally above this key level would negate our bearish stance. The [XAU] rallied to just shy of our second listed target of 96.65. The near-term pattern from 68.76 (Sept. 23 wave B low) to yesterday's 92.72 high has traced out three waves thus far, so the rally is not over. Wave C must trace out five waves before topping, thus I expect another leg up starting in the next day or so. There is a minor upside target at 94.12 (where waves one and five are equal) and then a higher cluster of Fibonacci relationships in the 96-98.30 area. The index should hit the first target at minimum, and will likely make a run toward the second. So the near-term picture is bullish and only a fall below 71.05 (a previous first wave high) would negate the pattern and turn the trend bearish again. [December Gold] pushed right through $286.60 yesterday and on to an intraday high of $329.00. Rumors abound concerning just how bad speculators are being squeezed from their short positions; a move the size of the past two days lends credence to this scuttlebutt. Short squeezes are rarely the foundation to long and lasting bull moves and this one should be no exception. However, that does not mean we've seen the end of the rally. It is highly probable that gold will make a run toward a test of the next resistance of $334.60-$343.20 in the near future. The entire surge higher from the $252.50 low (Aug.23) is likely Primary wave ((B)) (see July 1 EWT for long-term wave count). Rarely have I seen some many players become so uniformly bullish so quickly. One Comex trader was quoted yesterday as saying, "It [the gold market] has changed for at least the next FIVE years (my emphasis)." Another said, "You can't say you're bearish after this week." Well, o.k. for now. The past two days of rally is typical third wave action, which does not yet look complete. So continue to look higher from here, within the context of a developing ((B)) wave. Near term support is $283.30-$292.00, but only a drop beneath $266.40 (a previous first wave high) would return the picture to bearish. [December Silver] decided to join its precious metal brethren gold in the sharp rally of the past couple of days. Prices vaulted above 5.480, which told us that silver's picture had turned to bullish. Odds now heavily favor that prices will rise above 6.000 before topping again. The current thrust higher is Intermediate wave (C), which started at either the 51.05 low of September 15, or the 50.90 low of August 25 (see the alt. count in the September EWFF for the internal labels). A series of fourth and fifth waves need to trace out, and should carry prices to the next minor target of 6.020 (minimum). If this level is exceeded, a higher Fibonacci cluster is 6.235-6.344. One of these two levels and areas should mark the end of wave (C), hence the top of Primary wave ((B)). Thereafter we should see a resumption of silver's bear market. For now though, the near-term trend is bullish and will stay so as long as 5.330 (a previous first wave high) remains intact. A break there returns the picture to bearish. Next Update: Friday, October 1, 1999 Steven Hochberg, Editor >><<

To: re3 who wrote (65217)	9/29/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Lost1	Respond to of 86076

Senor Ike, Although you may not like PC's method of posting..he does represent an alternative position to Luc & Co.s doom and gloom. I think that this is a fantastic thread with a ton of valuable info. and I enjoy lurking here (mainly for fear of retribution). Please don't run off people that tend to disagree with the majority. Luc's abrasive posts are sometimes met with the same vibe he puts off. I have no doubt that the regulars here are very informed and can back up their opinions, but sometimes it begins to look like a big circle jerk (ie..Dell)<g>. Don't get me wrong, I love it when the whole bunch of you are on a roll. Some very funny sh*t! Have a good night.