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Gold/Mining/Energy : T.ITE: iTech Capital (TSE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keith massey who wrote (1040)	9/29/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Nawien Sharma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5053

Hi Keith, (LONG) sorry In short, my courses have not done much at this point. It doesn't hurt to have the background to research it if required. I have been very busy with work and other activities that seem to pop in front of any efforts to use any type of signal analysis on securities. When I graduated, I almost worked as a hardware engineer looking for and sending encoded messages in white noise. I did not pursue that avenue of work but decided to work as a software communications designer. I have noticed your posts from time to time relating to this topic and have been cheering for your progress. What you are attempting is very difficult; I wish you well. The problem I find is that there are too many parameters to deal with. The manner in which stocks are traded is dependent upon several external and internal factors. For example: - is the company under analysis capable of sustainable growth, - is the market in which they conduct business viable and growing, - is the customer base spread out or reliant on a few big customers - is the currency or home country stable - are there third parties involved that do not show up as assets but add value and hence are part of their equation of success (ie labour and unions) - Emotion is another factor that is hard to quantify. As we know fear and greed are powerful forces and have a direct impact on the movement of stocks as well(I believe that the Y2K fear factor will cause over selling of some solid companies- a good time to buy) - are there apparent or non-apparent current or future competitors that may render any analysis useless without proper risk consideration - There are so many other factor as well. Politics (US strong arming Canada on fishing/lumber/wheat/dairy etc.), smart money (ie. non leveraged) looking for the best annual return, natural disasters, ecological and environmental trends, demographical needs (ie. aging baby boomers), and others, etc. I'm sure it doesn't hurt to look for trends but will you feel comfortable enough to lay some money on it ? I know in the early 90's, small brokerage houses in New York were reluctant to use neural networking software. They found that the software worked fairly well with currency fluctuations and some forms of derivative trading but they couldn't explain why. I hope that when you find something, you'll be able to explain why and feel reasonably happy with the results. Anyway, keep me posted. If I get anywhere near to devising a useful system I'll let you know. Good Luck. Regards, Nawien