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Non-Tech : The New Iomega '2000' Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael M who wrote (2958)9/30/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Ken Pomaranski  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5023
 
<< Frankly, you could go back for the past year or two and find far more critical and insightful remarks about IOM from longs than you can from Ken P. >>

Sorry, but I'm not going to let you re-write history. No way. Over the past 3 years, I've posted the following:

1. Predicted TO THE EXACT QUARTER when Iomega would show their first losing quarter. And gave numbers why
2. Explained why the OEM model was doomed to kill Iomega. (treadmill effect.. remember?). Posted a model demonstrating this.
3. Showed how Iomega was losing money on every OEM drive sold. This was later admitted by Iomega
4. Predicted that rebates would come back to haunt them
5. Predicted that the 'hail mary' would fail due to demonstrated lack of 1:1 elasticity.
6. Showed how Iomega was a one product company.. disks
7. 1.5 years ago showed how the average ASP of computers dropping would hurt Iomega.
8. Showed why nhand wouldn't fly
9. actually did channel checks on CLIK! AND warned everyone that actual sales were WAY, WAY too low.
10. Published the expected size of the digital cam market (over the next 5 years) and showed what a 10% penetration would do to the bottom line.
11. Published my EXCEL model of Iomega revenues & earnings for the next 2 years.

etc...

I even gave you 7 stock picks, all of which would have made you great money in a declining market. WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?

The fact is, 90% of the bullish posts whine and cry about my attitude, Rocky's posts, or how the shorts are out to get your stock. I haven't seen a bullish post in TWO YEARS which can show me how Iomega will break out of this losing death spiral.

So, no, I don't buy your post. Believe it if it makes you feel better, I don't care.

About the future of Iomega: I'll post when I think it's turning around. At 3, it's probably better than a 50/50 gamble. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that this thing will fly to the moon when / if Iomega shows signs of turning. No doubt at all. Like Sandisk did. Believe me, I'll be in when it does. Money knows no pride... ;)

Personally, I'm waiting to see the numbers to take a large (30K shares) position. I'm watching VERY closely. Unlike Rocky, I haven't written this one off (for the long haul) quite yet...

Have a good evening...

kp