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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27924)	9/29/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

dennis: If you are messing with EMC, you are aware you can do so for 11% cheaper through an arb in DGN albeit with a little more risk?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27924)	9/30/1999 1:16:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

No, I haven't been able to trade as I am working weird hours still. Next week we play war games for a couple weeks and I will be in a tent during most of the day so I won't be able to even know if AG raises or not until after the market is closed. That is OK, it is more fun driving home and playing the guessing game by reading the looks on other driver's faces. <G> Each day I go to work I have a list in my pocket of stocks that will make the best plays for that day so if something major is announced on the radio, I can call in an order for a swing trade, but unless it is pretty much a sure thing, I can't trade without knowing what is going on. Too many short term swings and volatility with reversals, I would get slaughtered. I need a more steady trend to do a buy and hold. Besides the stuff that I like for a trade isn't what I want to hold if/when we finally put in a bottom. I am mostly watching value stuff like telecoms, financials etc so if I am wrong, they won't have a whole lot farther to fall. The flyers are still just way too high. Either the market rallies for no reason to join them, or they need to fall and rejoin the rest of the market. With rising TYX, falling dollar etc, I tend to think them falling is more likely. The market is nearing do or die time. I had more bullish lines fall today and the case for a large drop is getting stronger than I ever thought possible. Either we bounce or we are going to drop soon. Unfortunatly, it looks like the last couple days may have been the bounce and now we drop again. I do like the pattern on my indicators that I am seeing and how they are lining up with the Fed meeting. Many of them look like they are putting in mini double bottoms if the next drop goes as planned. This would finish out about the time the FOMC meets and could be setting up a rally. The only problem I have with this scenario is the pattern I have been seeing where stocks and sectors keep rallying for a day or two only to turn around and fall even faster than before. Lets see how long this bounce in the utilities and trannies lasts that happened today. I am too tired to make much sense here so good Luck, Lee