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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (405)	9/29/1999 10:39:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 52153

David, I would put Bexxar's chance of approval high - maybe 80% or better for ultimate approval. At issue is the timing of the approval - the later it happens the less of a start they get compared to IDPH's new drug (Zevalin) - and what sort of label Bexxar will get at the outset. A safe way to play this is to buy both CLTR and IDPH. They are both down a lot, and between them they are ultimately going to split a $1 billion market. IDPH is running lots of trials to expand their label. Their new drug seems to me not as good as Bexxar, but I assume it will find a niche as well. I think the market has wildly overreacted to the CLTR delay. Of course the company has considerable egg on its face, and they need to regain credibility. it's not risk free of course, but I think it has a very good risk-reward ratio. Peter

To: LLCF who wrote (405)	9/29/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: Bob L	Respond to of 52153

When Lehman Bros downgraded CLTR last month, they reduced their bexxar sales estimates for 2000, 2001 and 2002 to $66 million, $137 million, and $182 million, respectively. Substantially less than the $254 they previously estimated for 2002, but still a fair piece of change compared to current capitalization. This estimate included an assumption of larger sales for Zevalin than previously expected. As Peter suggests, this is now the big issue.

To: LLCF who wrote (405)	9/29/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Wow, David that post was from 1997. I still stand by it. I believe that Bex will be a $300m drug 3 to 4 years after approval. That is if they can ever get the BLA filing accepted. I guess you have to walk before you can run. Bex will have less of a lead over Y2B8 assuming that drug is approvable but from the data I have seen Bex is superior in both efficacy as well as fewer side effects. IDPH should report on its multi center phase III for Y2B8 in Q1 2000. The data from those trials will be very telling. v1