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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 8:51:00 AM
From: yousef hashmi	Respond to of 53903

-- =DJ Taiwan Chip Cos Bounce Back, But Quake Ripples To Linger -- NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturers are recovering from last week's earthquake, but its effects could linger until the first quarter of 2000, analysts said. The recovery is "pretty much meeting our expectations," said Mark Edelstone, a chip analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "It's better than some of the panic that was impacting the sector last week (when investors were) coming to conclusions that were far too negative." UMC Group and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) will probably weather manufacturing interruptions of 11 or 12 days; their factories are running at between 50 and 75% capacity right now, analysts said. And these companies reported little serious equipment damage, said Jay Deahna, Morgan Stanley's chip equipment analyst. Deahna and Edelstone held a conference call Wednesday to discuss the earthquake's impact on chip companies. Edelstone said the earthquake probably won't prevent chip companies from meeting analysts' third-quarter estimates, although it could "limit upside." Analysts said they expect lean inventory in the fourth quarter, which could keep a lid on revenue in the period. Shortages may not be a problem because some companies were building inventory to prepare for any year 2000-related glitches. But those lean inventories could actually cushion the normal falloff in demand in the first quarter, said Charlie Glavin, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. "We're talking about the first quarter being more robust" than is usual in the period, Glavin said. Glavin said several stocks were oversold during last week's earthquake jitters, including Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) and PMC Sierra Inc. (PMCS). - Christopher Grimes, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-5253 (END) DOW JONES NEWS 09-29-99 03:54 PM- - 03 54 PM EDT 09-29-99 Symbols: US;BRCM US;PMCS TW;2330 US;TSM Source DJ - Dow Jones Categories: I/SEM SUB/DJN N/DJN SUB/DJWI N/DJWI SUB/ADR N/ADR SUB/DJS N/DJS SUB/WEI N/WEI SUB/Y2K N/Y2K M/TEC P/DAA P/DCO P/DSE GEO/ASI R/ASI GEO/CAL R/CAL GEO/FE R/FE GEO/NME R/NME GEO/PRM R/PRM GEO/TW R/TW GEO/US R/US GEO/USW R/USW

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

SS You wrote <What will turn the major trend back in the upward direction (price)?> SS A very good question. And the simple answer is for MU to stay above 72 toady ! The current change in Major Trend is a probability thing. Yesterday the probabilities went to the negative side and staying above 72 today will keep the 20 day above/below the highs/lows thing from kicking in....so my third chart would not change at the bottom. More later Larry Dudash

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 9:59:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

SS More. With a low of 70 1/2 so far today, the 85 top seems far far away. The only hope for the MU bulls is the coming test of the 85 high by Oct 15, 1999. Remember econ/stocks 101 states that stock price leads dram price ! The rise from 30 to 85 fore told of dram going from $4 to $20. But again, I see things from a TA point of view(g) In summary..each day that passes and 85 is not topped.. indicates the bear is now in control of MU Larry Dudash

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

sridhar, count me in the group of permanently perplexed about mu investor psychology (not necessarily a bad thing!) ;-) recent pricing is very good news (though the dellheads say mu won't be charging dell $9 for dram!)

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Sridhar, I have a very old moto, when TA and FA do not jive, believe the TA, the change in the FA will soon be visible thereafter. Maybe in terms of the scenario, you may want to view the current price situation as a battle between MU (and its promoters) and its lenders (the holders of convertible paper). MU needs to have that shitload of debt converted to equity (thus they need 20 out of 30 consecutive days of closing above $88 or so). The lender on the other hand have a conversion price of around $67/share, so as long as the stock is above that, they can hedge their position here and now, that hedging activity puts downward pressure on the price. That is why I think that the pressure will be alleviated once the stock gets to $67, but because of the general weakness in the market over the next few weeks and the inherent volatility (herd mentality) of the stock, I would not be surprised if we go down just under $60 (I have about $59 as a potential bottom). Then the MU forces will restart their concert of reits and we will once more try and get the "scenario" underway. This is just my "Turnips" opinion of course, and it is worth about $.02 if any. Zeev

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (48792)	9/30/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: zsteve	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Sridhar, some things to consider: 1), how much 'earnings' will MU will report, and how much MU will earn next year to support a P/E over 30? 2), we didn't hear more 're-it's for a while now. has someone leaked something to those 'dear WS rat' analysts that we didn't know? 3), will Intel and TI take huge profits on MU stock in near future? 4), according to our dear 'DanNiles' boy, OEMs cancelled some CPU orders from Intel. if that is true, what that means to PC market? is it really so hot? 5), how long the DRAM spot price spike will last? do MU has the power to have most OEMs sign contracts with those inflated prices? .... not too many positive things to think for me good trading