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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (28037)	9/30/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ, I agree with you that people are not as easily panicked nowadays, the '97 and '98 hiccups taught them that. However, that could be just as well interpreted as enormous complacency. after the go-go '60‘s many thought the same way, only to sell out right at the bottom of the '74 bear, when the newspapers were screaming doom and gloom. Many of the high-flying stocks back then took 15 years to recover, some never recovered. Mutual fund was a dirty word in '74… I agree as a trader that it may be time to go long for a tradable rally in certain sectors at least, but as a long term investor I'd use rallies to sell…we were very fortunate in that we had such a long-lived and extensive bull market, but balance WILL return, Yin and Yang, you know? There is a time for everything…this is after all the historically highest valuation this market has ever achieved, and why tempt fate? Sure, one may miss out on a blow-off, but the risk/reward for the longer term doesn't look good here imo. We all know how the market suffers from deteriorating internals, and rates are rising and the disinflationary backdrop seems on the cusp of reversing. That said, I did a little bit of buying today, but strictly in downtrodden out-of –favor stuff where the downside risk seems small. Otherwise I'll wait for valuations to come down a bit first…which doesn't mean I won't play high-flyers for the short term if it seems opportune. As a long term investor I'd count my blessings, realize some of the enormous paper gains of recent years and sit back and watch for a while. Just imo of course…I may be wrong and this is REALLY a new era <GGG> Regards, hb