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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (32683)	9/30/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Steve, Agree with your post. It's the analyst whose logic appears to be flawed. I think it's something like the Y2K thing. Some consultants (usually those who aren't smart enough to get a permanent job) started thinking about how they could get fabulously wealthy off irrational Y2K fears. Then people who don't understand the intricacies of IT pick up the phobia, like Yardeni. Then you have them calling for a global recession caused solely by a problem which has been foreseen for a couple decades or so - the first time ever that such a widely anticipated problem would ever have had that nature of economic impact. On Jan 1st, I expect to be inundated with flame mail if the world really does come to an end. Fat chance!!! Similarly some mental midget somewhere starts wondering what might happen if Taiwan loses a couple months of production ignoring the fact that, at most, they'll lose a couple weeks which may well be made up before the end of the October quarter; and further ignoring the fact that most chips to be put into PCs during the next couple months came off wafers that have already been through the front end processes. To shorten a long story, if they keep it up, a nice buying opportunity will again be created. JMHO, Ian.

To: SJS who wrote (32683)	9/30/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Steve, Just received Katherine D's newsletter. She seems to have some articles that may contradict the Chicken Littles in the analyst community. FWIW, Ian. +++++++++ ****** Semiconductor Online's Weekly Selection **** FEATURED ARTICLES selected by Katherine Derbyshire ** 1) Taiwan infrastructure, chip industry, picking up the pieces 2) North American Semiconductor Equipment Manufactures Year-Over-Year Bookings Up 150% 3) UMC Group Suffers Minimal Impact from Taiwan Quake 4) Taiwan's Stake in Semiconductor Market to Surge by Year's End ------------------------------------------------------------ 1) Taiwan infrastructure, chip industry, picking up the pieces The news from Taiwan has been grim this week, with death tolls rising steadily in the wake of Tuesday's 7.6 magnitude earthquake. Infrastructure damage in the central region was severe: landslides have cut many roads, hampering aid efforts. Despite all of this, reports from Taiwan's semiconductor industry were upbeat. www2.semiconductoronline.com 2) North American Semiconductor Equipment Manufactures Year-Over-Year Bookings Up 150% Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) reports that the North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted an August 1999 Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.08. The three-month average of worldwide shipments in August 1999 was $1.34 billion, even with the July 1999 level. www2.semiconductoronline.com 3) UMC Group Suffers Minimal Impact from Taiwan Quake In response to the earthquake that took place in Taipei, Taiwan Tuesday, UMC Group announced that based on initial inspections, there is no apparent damage to its fab buildings or machinery, other than some broken glass (eg. quartz furnace tubes), and the loss of a few ceiling tiles. The company's back-up power systems operated as intended in response to the disruption. www2.semiconductoronline.com 4) Taiwan's Stake in Semiconductor Market to Surge by Year's End According to data distributed at the SEMICON Taiwan 99 exposition, Taiwan currently accounts for two-thirds of worldwide revenue for foundry-produced integrated circuits (IC's). As a result, semiconductor equipment capital spending in Taiwan increased from $80 million in 1990 to nearly $3.28 billion in 1998. From 1% of the worldwide semiconductor equipment market in 1990, Taiwan is positioned to hold a projected 18% of the global market in 1999, surpassing Korea (7%), and Europe (13%) and nearly catching Japan (21%), according to SEMI data. www2.semiconductoronline.com *