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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (42988)	9/30/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Kent Rattey	Respond to of 152472

fiberoptic.com Just how quickly will Americans make a wireless phone their only phone? The media publish stories about it at least once a month, but are we looking at a phenomena confined to a college-age cohort group or at something that is spreading more evenly throughout society. INSIGHT's research found that, depending on the type of household, as many as six out of ten people would consider using their wireless phone as their primary phone if the costs were equal. And with wireless per minute prices falling and penetration rates growing, 2000 is shaping up to become a watershed year for the cellular industry. Most people who use their wireless phone as their primary phone do not discontinue the use of a wireline phone altogether, keeping it for emergency use or, more often, for Internet access. Actual substitution, where customers disconnect their landline phones, is still years away. What we are seeing is that customers are using their wireless service more and their landline service less. The reduction in per minute prices for wireless service is one easily identifiable factor driving consumers to use wireless service as their primary means of communication. Nationwide pricing plans are bundling long distance with local service and not charging for roaming. They are effectively bringing the price of wireless service to parity with landline services. Indications are that when the numbers are finally tallied for 1999, this will be the year when the US will finally see the growth rates in wireless comparable to what European countries have witnessed. A number of factors are converging in the US to stimulate that growth: -increased penetration of wireless service, -additional competition, -larger coverage areas, -increased digitalization of wireless networks, -lower pricing, -creative marketing and distribution packaging, -bundling of long distance and local minutes, and -increased use of prepaid services. The Market Currently only six percent of all the calls made in the US are made from a wireless phone, but this number is predicted to increase to 9.6 percent by 2000 and to 12.7 percent by the end of 2002. By 2005 worldwide wireless traffic is expected to account for 25 percent of the total traffic, up from five percent in 1998. Wireless service is shifting from using analog signals to digital. At the end of 1997, only 12 percent of the US subscriber base was digital; today, that figure is at 27 percent. In 1998, more than three out of every four new wireless subscribers chose a digital service. Methodology This report is based on primary and secondary research. Primary research consisted of INSIGHT's proprietary survey of 1,022 consumers as well as interviews of regulators, industry players, and academicians. The survey was weighed to account for probabilities of random selection of an individual male or female household member and balanced by age, sex, race, and education to match key US Census demographic variables. Secondary research was based on information from various regulators and government agencies, searches of news and periodical articles from newspapers and trade journals, Internet searches, research reports from a number of securities houses, and attendance at conferences and trade shows. The information contained in this report is as accurate and complete as possible, based on available data. The companies profiled in this report neither officially endorse nor necessarily agree with the contents of this report. Key Findings of the Consumer Study - Wireless penetration in the US is approximately 25 percent and is rising by about four percent a year. - Wireless usage will increase as prices continue to fall and as carriers continue to introduce new marketing bundles that effectively bring prices down below 10¢ a minute. - Wireless users are predominantly interested in having a wireless service that offers nationwide service with no roaming and no long distance charges. - Key drivers to increasing wireless usage are mobility, convenience, and accessibility. Users are willing to pay extra for services that provide them with these qualities. - Wireless carriers have not done enough to educate consumers about the benefits of using a wireless phone. As long as wireless phones remain a luxury item, usage will not increase. Although consumers are beginning to perceive wireless phones more as a necessity, more needs to be done to speed up this change. - Complete displacement of wired phones will not occur until wireless phones can carry data as smoothly and as fast as today's wired phones. - Usage and penetration of wireless services can be significantly increased by adopting some of the same strategies and market segmentation that European and Asian (predominantly Japanese) wireless providers have been using for the past few years.

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (42988)	9/30/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: The Reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I would like to throw this out to the thread for comments from people smarter than me. With Japan being a big market for Q!, what is the potential effect from the nuclear situation on Q! and the market in general? Has anyone given any thought to what the magnitude of this accident could be? kirby

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (42988)	9/30/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 152472

If Q sells to MOT, then they are #1, with a CDMA offering. From WSJ~ September 30, 1999 Dow Jones Newswires US 2Q Mobile Handset Sales Top 10.3M; Nokia's Share 31.7% STOCKHOLM -- U.S. mobile phone handset sales surpassed 10.3 million units in the second quarter of 1999, with Finland's Oy Nokia (NOKA) the largest supplier, according to market intelligence firm Dataquest, which is part of Gartner Group Inc(IT). Nokia had a market share of 31.7% during the quarter, with Motorola Inc. (MOT) in second place with 22.4%. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) had a 12.2% market share, with Audiovox Corp. (VOX) and Telefon AB LM Ericsson (ERICY) having 10.3% and 10.2%, respectively. Dataquest said digital handsets accounted for 77.8% of sales in the second quarter, with analog handsets representing 22.2%. By comparison, 1998 year-end results showed a 40% share for analog handsets. Dataquest said code division multiple access, or CDMA, handsets were becoming an increasingly large component of the strong growth expected for digital mobile telephony in the U.S. The company said Nokia's weak share in CDMA prevented it from running away with the U.S. market. By contrast, Motorola's CDMA portfolio helped it capture the number two position. Ericsson was held back as it currently doesn't have a CDMA product, Dataquest said in a statement issued on Wednesday.