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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CrazyTrain who wrote (63549)	10/1/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: jas cooper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 90042

<<Name one person on SI with a BETTER track record at predicting takeovers than Tim?>> Well, if you really want to know, I do. Shall I name a few: TLC/BROD MAT/TLC NT/BAY ASND/CSCC COMS/USRX ALA/XYLN NETA/NETG MFST/UUNT WCOM/MFST AOL/NSCP GEC/FORE INTC/DLGC INTC/SHVA CA?/CYE LU/ASND LLL?/MCDY LU/INSS The trick isn't trying to pick a company that is going to be taken over, but to find good investments that can realize a great bonus by being acquired. <<Takeovers are unique in that everyone (who buys and holds) can win (unlike the many P&D'ers who exit at the top and leave the "flock" holding the bag).>> Everyone can't win. When bought at prices where takeover rumors are priced into the stock, if the buyout doesn't occur, the price will drop. Pumping and Dumping is not as widespread as one might think, and requires a much wider following than Tim has. The belief that Tim can affect the market with his calls is restricted to the vacuum of NR4W. <<Some who trade in and out may win more or lose out on the largest gain if they are not holding when it happens.>> And those who restrict their portfolios to one or two of Tim's picks risk losing everything if he is wrong. Remember, CS was supposed to have been bought by June for $24. And the bottom was $17 1/4 just the other day. <<There is no advantage for Tim in sharing his picks with us.>> Other than to let folks stroke his ego. You don't hear him talking about his losers too often. <<He researches very hard on the picks that he gives us (for FREE).>> That's the biggest laugh yet. He spends all his time filling this thread with his table pounding drivel. His research is reading the same rumors and opinions that are available to anyone. <<He may buy on the dips but he gains nothing if the price increases or decreases as the final price is set in the takeover terms (unless you believe that he has the power to influence the final price of a takeover).>> You keep assuming that when Tim calls a takeover, it will occur. What about COMS, what about MER, and now KNT and PIOS? What made CS a good call in June, a bad call in August, and a good call again in September? <<Tim only wins if he is right. He is not perfect and is not right 100% of the time,>> Unfortunately, some people on this board believe he is perfect, Tim being one of them. << but if you had followed his advice every time I doubt that you would be complaining now.>> I'm not complaining. I have been in most of Tim's 'takeover' plays long before, and at lower prices, than he was. Don't believe me, check back on the FORE, ASND and XYLN threads. <<The other great thing about a takeover play is that once you are convinced its a done deal, you don't have to stare at your computer and try to time the market. When it happens its over and that's it.>> If you can be convinced that anything is a done deal until it announced, signed and sealed, you are an idiot. And last I heard CS hasn't been sold yet. <<You are either a very big winner or you are kicking yourself. Is it risky? No more than any other tech stock. CS is a good stock with high potential and should be a good long-term hold no matter what.>> I'm not kicking myself. You figure it out. And as many people failed to believe with FORE because of my posts, I am a CS shareholder, in both my IRA and regular accounts. Is it my only holding? No. I don't believe in putting all my eggs in one basket. Good stock? Not really. Good investment? In the single digits, it was way undervalued. At $12 or so, with new blood at the helm, still worth buying. At $15, buyout rumors are priced in. At $19, too many people are counting their money, or believe the line that the company can effect a turnaround and see a 30-40% growth rate within 18 months. Wall Street doesn't like flat revenues, no matter what you promise them. A recent article somewhere suggested Cabletron's only possible fate was "death by acquisition". Time will tell, but it doesn't seem like betting everything on a CS buyout is the most logical path for preservation of capital, which many people on this thread should be thinking about. But, of course, all this is just my very humble opinion... james