To: ScotMcI who wrote (23164 ) 10/1/1999 10:14:00 AM From: BillyG Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
Don't worry about drought of new fabs -- yet By J. Robert Lineback Semiconductor Business News (10/01/99, 09:19:28 AM EDT) MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- It's been a year now since a major new wafer fab has been announced in the chip industry, and capacity utilization of leading-edge processes is pushing dangerously close to 100%, according to some analysts. Will chip makers wait much longer before launching new billion-dollar fabs? Perhaps. But if they do, the electronics industry will most likely face severe shortages of memories, microprocessors, and system-on-chip ICs in the middle of the next semiconductor boom: 2001-2002. "If we don't start seeing some new projects announced in the next two or three quarters, we are probably going to fill up all of the capacity out there, and there will be a little bit of a pause before we get to the point where new buildings and cleanrooms are capable of being ramped [in production]," said analyst Jay Deahna, who tracks the semiconductor equipment business at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. During a conference call with the press Thursday afternoon, Deahna and officials with the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group assessed the strength of the 1999 recovery in capital spending by chip makers. The consensus was that chip makers were re-accelerating their investments in new production capacity after a brief summer pause (see Sept. 30 story). But most of the new investments in wafer fabs are going into existing facilities to upgrade wafer-processing lines with 0.18-micron technologies or to increase yields with new levels of automation and process-control systems, according to Deanha. While no new "greenfield" fabs areb on the verge of being announced just yet, Deanha does believe there are plenty of empty shells waiting to be equipped in the next three to six months. "There are at least a dozen and a half empty shells out there that can be populated before we have to start worrying about building new ones," said the Silicon Valley-based capital equipment analyst. Deanha cited Micron Technology's facility in Lehi, Utah, and Hyundai Electronics' empty plant in Dunfermline, Scotland, as well as the fab building set up by LG Semicon in Wales before its chip unit was merged with Hyundai. "I think we have enough headroom of empty shells, but I would want to see the greenfield announcements pick up in the next two or three quarters," Deanha cautioned. The last major new fab project to be announced was a $1.2 billion joint-venture between Philips Semiconductors and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) in Singapore. The two companies plan to open the 8-inch fab next year and bring it into full production by 2003 (see Sept. 29, 1998, story). Semiconductor investments in new production capacity are expected to surge in 2000 after nearly $20 billion of capital spending was postponed or eliminated by chip makers last year. SEMI's new forecast, released this week, shows semiconductor equipment revenues growing 21.7% to $28 billion next year from $23 billion this year. Spending on semiconductor materials will increase 13.6% to $25 billion in 2000 vs. $20 billion this year, according to the Mountain View-based trade group. "This summer saw a bit of a slowdown in the impressive growth in the beginning of the year; however, the broader industry indicators all seem to be pointing towards a return to steady, slightly more robust growth in the fourth quarter and into the year 2000," said SEMI president Stanley Myers during the group's first quarterly update conference call with the press on Thursday.