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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (28063)	10/2/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

Berney, >>> probably not an accident that we've retraced 62%.<<< using the decisionpoint a-d data (which appears to be WSJ/Barron's data) the rise in the a-d line from 12/12/94 to 4/3/98 was 75254 units. A fibo .618 retracement would be 46507 units. We blew through that on the 9/22 close with the Dow at 10524 We are just under the February 2, 1994 peak by 797 units. Your fibo retracement in the a-d line raises an interesting question. Perhaps if we are to compare previous a-d line action in terms of units retraced we should compare this in the form of a ratio a-d line, because as you go back in time there were fewer nominal issues traded, even in 1998 at the peak, or in 1994 at the inception of the move, and certainly in 1957. On this basis the ratio a-d line in the 1956 - 1957 period, believe it or not, retraced to just above the .618 retracement point for the initial low on 10/22/57, and then on the retest(s) fell to just below it. On a ratio a-d basis we just crossed the 50% retracement level, also on 9/22 . The 1953 - 1956 rally, on a ratio a-d line basis, was stronger than the recent 1994 - 1998 rally, net 36.13 then versus 30.31 now. If we take the fraction of the correction back then 23.15/36.13 and apply it to now that figure lands up at just below what the fibo .618 correction would be today - lower by 3.60 net ratio a-d. Does all this mean anything? The hell if I know. Vitas