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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (41716)	10/1/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116768

Gold Morning Fix - 303.25 -13.50 Silver Morning Fix - 5.55 -.16 Platinum Morning Fix - 401.00 -28.00 7:00 PM CST update 9/30 This morning the gold market comes in just under unchanged from yesterday's weaker close of 302.00. We did hold 295.00 overnight, which was constructive. This consolidation pattern worries me only because I am questioning the efficiency of yesterday's break to shake out some recent weak longs prior to any subsequent move higher. The consolidation pattern should hold 295.00 as it did last night or see breaks to 288.00 to 285.00. I have spoke to more than a few gold hedgers and each stated they have partially lifted hedges (which doesn't help the bulls) and the temptation to begin to cover some more product at these higher levels is hard to pass up. For instance a Bridge News article quoted CFO of Ashanti Goldfields saying that a very significant amount of its hedge restructuring has already been done in the past three days (the lifting of current hedges, which means their buying is mostly done). We need to assess the reasons for the recent rally to understand if more significant buying may emerge. The rally was done on futures short-covering, OTC option covering, lease coverage, hedge lifting, and new buying. At this point, given that most of these factors have subsided it is no wonder the rally has stalled. BUT don't give up hope!! Remember we believe this is a stall, not the end to the move. Dips down below 295.00 is an opportunity to add to longs. 8:00 PM CST update 9/29 The gold market just came down and tested 295.10... The market needs to hold that level now until London opens, when we should see some more cash strength to back us. Silver is on its lows at 5.555, it needs to hold 5.53! I need to follow-up with a technical thought... technically the gold market looks like a blow-off top that can see moves as low as 292.00 to 288.00. The corrective pullbacks can remain congestive for several days, and only a trade back over 316.00 negates the technical congestion. Take profits if you can't be patient, but I need to see if the market can continue. One day down does not break a trend. A representative of the Central Bank of Russia said that it is possible the CBR may place 7.3 million ounces of its gold with western banks, thereby enabling it to be lent to the market. He said that due to the current 5% export tax on precious metals, it was not profitable for the CBR to sell gold outright, but added that lending it out was possible, depending on the interest rates offered by the banks concerned. While the climb in gold lease rates makes it more attractive to lend gold, they are probably not yet sufficiently high to cancel out Russia's 5% export tax on precious metals. Even if this were to happen it is not sufficient to squelch a strong market, and only slightly offsets those looking to cover leased gold. alaron.com