BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS The Internet Stock Team ------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: internetstocks.com If you do not have access to a browser, please reply to mailto:internetstocks@rsco.com with the message "unsubscribe" in the subject box. Mailing List Changes: internetstocks.com ------------------------------------------------------------------- October 1, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #39
Internetstocks.com Overview - Keith E. Benjamin - mailto:keith@rsco.com
This week, the NETDEX index increased 9% to 563.28, compared with the NASDAQ, which stayed flat.
While the NETDEX is up approximately 38% from its August lows, it is still down about 30% from its all-time high of 801.41 on 4/13/99. If we look at percentage changes from low to high in previous quarters (particularly last year's fourth quarter), the NETDEX was up 67.5% in Q3:98, up 202.4% in Q4:98, up 66.0% in Q1:99, up 69.6% in Q2:99 and up 47.1% in Q3:99.
SEPTEMBER QUARTER EARNINGS PREVIEW: We have been encouraged by the modest recovery in many stocks and anticipate further progress as we near reporting season, with Yahoo! scheduled to be the first to report on October 6. Commerce activity appears to be building in anticipation of the holiday season, and we expect that this will serve as a potential catalyst for the sector. We do, however, expect that many eTailers will use the Q3 reporting season as an opportunity to make sure expectations for Q4 don't get overly optimistic, leaving them insufficient room to post major upside. With many of the leading stocks still 40% below highs, we believe there is a buying opportunity throughout the group. In our view, stocks with the biggest potential for earnings-related upside and catalysts include Yahoo!, MapQuest, Student Advantage, Network Solutions, Ticketmaster-CitySearch, Priceline.com and InfoSpace.com. Stocks for which we believe earnings releases should confirm strong business prospects and where we believe the stocks are not reflecting the opportunity include Excite @Home and Gemstar.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan - mailto:lauren@rsco.com
The eTailDEX surged to 1228.88, up 11.3% from 1103.8 last week. The eTailDEX is currently up 51.2% from the recent low of 812.5 on August 4 but still down 32% from the 52-week high of 1807.45, suggesting room for substantial moves in the group over the coming months. We note that the recent gains in the eTailDEX have been fueled primarily by the large capitalization franchise names (with Amazon up 28.1% and eToys up 19.6% this past week). Over the coming weeks, we anticipate that smaller cap eTailers, such as Beyond.com, Alloy Online and Global Sports, could also benefit from heightened investor and consumer enthusiasm for online shopping.
AMAZON -EVOLVING INTO THE FIRST eTAIL PORTAL - Amazon's stock jumped more than 22% on Wednesday's news that through its new zSHOPS program, its valuable Web storefront is now available (for a fee) to any merchant interested in selling online. While some critics interpreted this move as an indication that Amazon's business model is flawed, we saw this move as Amazon's opportunity to solidify its position as the most dominant online shopping destination. Our positive investment thesis for Amazon has long been based on our belief that the company is uniquely positioned, given its 12 million customers and solid brand presence that connotes expert status in online shopping, to transition into a Web landlord. Through zSHOPS and the company's expanded search functionality, we believe Amazon.com can extend its brand to represent a gateway to online shopping for both consumers and other merchants alike. We particularly like the high margin, fee-based revenue stream that the new shopping format affords Amazon. Over time, we expect that tiers of merchant partners could emerge (borrowing a page from the AOL playbook). We fully expect this area to evolve over the coming months (we would like to see a more visually appealing presentation of items for starters) with a wide range of retailers, vendors and eTailers experimenting with this forum as a low cost means of reaching the single largest audience of qualified online shoppers. We did not change our estimates for Amazon based on this announcement, but firmly believe that this move, if executed solidly, should allow the company to continue to exceed expectations. More importantly, we believe Amazon's growing opportunity to participate in an increasing share of total eTailing transactions warrants a valuation in excess of current levels.
ETOYS - USING CONTENT FOR COMPETITIVE DIFFERENTIATION - eToys solidified its position as the dominant children's eTailer with the launch of a new thematic content area called Idea Center. Inspired by children's interests, Idea Center allows children and adults to explore their imaginations in areas such as "when I grow up, I want to be a*" and "the wonders of science." In our view, eToys has again raised the bar for online shopping for kids. Through the Idea Center, eToys is essentially capturing its core customers' imaginations and deepening its ties to both parents and kids. Interestingly, eToys provides useful links to other "kid approved" sites of relevance off of the Idea Center pages. We believe this establishes eToys' content offering as something far deeper than simply window dressing for a commerce offering and, therefore, could lead to an increasingly loyal and active customer base. Certainly, we believe eToys should be able to generate related product sales as customers search and discover new interests. Finally, we note that we believe this type of offering and the expert status it communicates differentiates eToys from broad-line eTailers (such as Amazon and WalMart) as well as land-based toy retailers.
PRICELINE - ANOTHER WEEK BRINGS ANOTHER NEW SERVICE AND LICENSEE - Priceline announced an agreement with Budget Rent-a-Car this week whereby Budget will become a preferred supplier for Priceline's name-your-price car rental service expected to launch in Q4. We find it interesting that less than four months after Budget launched a service similar to Priceline's patented demand collection system, Budget now plans to license Priceline's business method and phase out its own service. We wonder if potential litigation sparked this partnership or whether Priceline's leading brand and technology in the name-your-price market made for a more attractive ally than foe. We believe that as other Web players recognize the growing popularity and consumer acceptance of Priceline's demand collection business method, a growing number of would-be competitors could follow the likes of Budget and WebHouse (Priceline's first licensee) and choose to partner with Priceline and leverage its core competencies. Longer term, we believe this could lead to a significant high margin revenue stream for Priceline that should complement its robust core businesses.
GLOBAL SPORTS TEAMS WITH WebMD - Global Sports announced a broad partnership with WebMD, to operate the eCommerce element of the new sports medicine and fitness channel to be created by WebMD and HEALTHSOUTH. We believe the WebMD store could become one of Global Sports' biggest eTail storefronts. The alliance offers Global Sports exposure to consumers looking for rich health-related content, one of the fastest growing web use categories, as well as to each of WebMD's strategic partners, including MSN, Lycos, Excite, Readers Digest and CNN. We continue to believe that Global Sports' unique format and ability to leverage the existing brands of its retail partners should position the company to be the leading sporting goods eTailer when it commences operations later this month.
WHOLE FOODS ANNOUNCES ONLINE STRATEGY - Whole Foods announced aggressive plans for the creation of a new Internet subsidiary to be called WholePeople.com, to be formed by merging its existing WholeFoods.com business with its nutritional supplement subsidiary, Amrion. Whole Foods has letters of intent for $35 million in investment dollars for the new venture, which is valued at $260 million, and plans to launch the site in spring. The company stated its intention to become the leading brand in the "whole living" eTail category by leveraging off its existing Whole Foods and Amryon customer base and establishing partnerships with complementary businesses. The company's announced intention to have only 10% of its online sales come from products available in brick and mortar stores "in a couple years" seemed to echo Starbucks' announcement a few months ago to create an online lifestyle business that was an extension of its current land-based focus. While investors reacted swiftly and negatively to Starbucks' announcement, we believe that the Whole Foods strategy makes sense given its market niche and the growing popularity of health-related Web sites. We also note the growing number of land-based retailers that are willing to take outside venture capital to accelerate their online moves. We believe this financing strategy has significant potential advantages with respect to the critical issues of time to market and access to online talent.
eNetwork Update - Michael Graham - mailto:michael@rsco.com
CMGI PACE OF INVESTMENTS INCREASING, BUYS FLYCAST - This week CMGI reported Q4:99 results, which gives us increased confidence that our asset value estimate is conservative. The company is currently pursuing venture investments at the rate of about one per week. As the pace and size of investments has been increasing, we believe management has become more focused on identifying large open-ended markets where it can create an edge and strengthen its offering through acquisition. The first example has been purchases in the advertising management space, including the acquisitions of AdForce, AdKnowledge, and most recently Flycast. We believe the Flycast acquisition complements CMGI's AdSmart subsidiary and strengthens CMGI's suite of advertising management companies, ratcheting up its ability to compete with eMarketing leader DoubleClick. Also this week management disclosed plans for two new international funds with plans to launch @Ventures Asia and @Ventures Europe. We also expect CMGI will take an even larger ownership of @Ventures IV than the 20% stake in @Ventures III, which implies a bigger positive impact on CMGI's asset value if the investments perform well. We estimate CMGI's conservative asset value is $65. If we take an optimistic stance regarding the IPO prospects for each of the nearly 50 investments, we estimate the asset value at $139. We continue to believe investors will pay a premium for the investment expertise on the Web and rank the stock near the top of our list.
YAHOO!: We expect Yahoo! to begin earnings season by posting impressive growth metrics across the board next week. While there has been no formal announcement, we understand Yahoo! has been increasing ad rates across its inventory. Because of the wide range of pricing options, including discounts, it's difficult to estimate averages. However, looking toward next year, we believe the increase will end up being greater than prior moves, maybe closer to double digits than single digits on a percentage basis. For the next two quarters, we remain highly confident about Yahoo's rapid growth rate. For the December quarter, we believe the company may finally have fixed its commerce strategy, enabling it to capture more holiday shopping dollars in its new mall, which includes more branded stores with improved merchandising. We also believe the numbers from international markets are starting to rise to significant levels. In our view, Yahoo! is positioned to capture a disproportionate share of the Web's upside with less controversy than almost any other stock in the group.
MAPQUEST: We believe that MapQuest is poised to deliver a strong quarter. We believe page views for both its consumer and business segments are tracking ahead of schedule and there is potential upside to revenue in both segments. On the business-to-business front, we believe the company will easily meet or beat our new business customer estimates of 120 total additions in the quarter. We believe contracts with sites such as Yahoo! are tracking well and believe the performance based structure of these deals could also provide upside to our revenue estimates for the second half of the year. We expect the company to relaunch its consumer Web site, mapquest.com, within the next month and believe several new features could lead to increased revenue and traffic. Included is a mapping feature that allows users to track vehicular traffic on major routes and actually view roadways live online. We believe investors will begin to focus on the very large market MapQuest is pursuing from a leadership position, and we expect the stock to work much higher as the scope of opportunities becomes apparent.
TICKETMASTER CITYSEARCH: We believe TMCS is poised to deliver an excellent quarter with significant upside to our estimates. We see a disconnect between accelerating business trends and the stock as a function of pressure from sales of stock, particularly from individuals and companies receiving stock after selling their companies to Ticketmaster. We believe we are close to the completion of most of these stock sales. For reference, the stock is down 42.3% from a post-Q2 high of $40-1/16 on July 19. In our opinion, the company leads in local content by a wide margin and is just beginning to exploit local commerce opportunities, starting with tickets and recently local auctions, dating services and more. We view this market as quite large and view the stock as a core Web franchises.
INFOSPACE: We believe there is upside to our Q3 estimates, given the flurry of recent deals announced by the company and our sequential revenue growth estimate of 24%. We believe InfoSpace has only begun to capitalize on its opportunity to supply Web content to a wide range of Web sites. We believe the company is developing a Webwide infrastructure for facilitating commerce by blending its content offerings (i.e., yellow pages and classified ads) with its newly developed technologies such as ActiveShopper, ActivePromotion, and StoreBuilder. The end product is a fully integrated content and commerce solution that can be targeted toward any user and tailored for any Web site.
STUDENT ADVANTAGE ACQUIRES VOICE FX: The company announced plans to acquire Voice FX Corporation for approximately $1.3 million in cash and 478,000 shares of STAD common stock. Voice FX provides Internet and voice response telephone services to colleges and university registrar offices. The company's proprietary technology, students can access grades, order transcripts and find out about financial aid, all online or over the phone. We estimate that approximately 650,000 students at 54 colleges and universities currently use Voice FX solutions. As such, we view this acquisition as yet another move on Student Advantage's part to offer more valuable products and services to student members.
EXCITE @HOME: We believe subscriber growth, revenues, and earnings to be in line or slightly higher than our estimates. Our 3Q:99 ending @Home subscriber estimate is 800,000, a sequential increase of 180,000 subscriptions. We do not expect much upside this quarter and would be impressed with the addition of 200,000 subscribers. We believe there to be more upside, in the 10%-20% range, to our Media revenue of $70.6 million as Excite executes. Although we expect any upside to be spent against sales and marketing and not follow through to EPS, we believe Excite @Home could begin to show its breadth of vision with new partnerships, including deals for customer acquisition initiatives with large companies such as Microsoft and for "@Home-Ready PCs" as hinted at by last weeks agreement with Dell. Short term, we believe Excite@Home's stock could be volatile as investors might overreact to open access developments and AT&T-related news, either positive or negative. We believe the first important event will be when the appeal process involving open access in Portland, Oregon, begins. We expect the first data point from that process in November, with rest of the news spilling into next year before final resolution. We continue to believe the issue will subside with little impact on Excite@Home's business.
GEMSTAR: We believe our estimates to be conservative, with room for upside when Gemstar reports in late November. We believe there could be less upside to our current licensing revenue estimates, but we expect more in the next few quarters. Longer term, we believe there is very big upside from advertising revenue. We anticipate raising all of our revenue estimates substantially in the next month. The company may be reaching more people with its advertising-based guides faster than we had anticipated. We believe that Gemstar's existing relationships with consumer electronic manufacturers will help extend the company's reach into new platforms. We believe Gemstar's Guide Plus to be in almost every U.S. household in three to five years. We continue to find the risk/reward profile of the stock compelling and maintain Gemstar as our top pick.
CNET GENERATING MORE REVENUE: CNET announced that it generated more than $270 million in revenue for its merchant partners in Q3, up 44% from $187 million in Q2. We believe this suggests lead-generated fees for CNET could be near $8.5 million for Q3, up from $6.0 million in Q2. This data point reinforces our confidence for potential upside to our $26.4 million revenue estimate, and we believe earnings should be in-line with our estimate of $(0.33) as the company wraps up the third month of its large-scale advertising campaign. CNET is set to report Q3 earnings on October 21st.
eMarketing Update - Lowell J. Singer - mailto:lowell@rsco.com
NET PERCEPTIONS INTRODUCES E-MAIL PRODUCT: Net Perceptions introduced its fourth product, Net Perceptions for Marketing Campaigns. The product will use the company's recommendation software to aid marketers in improving the targeting of e-mails. In our view, this product has broad B-to-C and B-to-B implications. We believe that personalization is becoming increasingly critical to Web merchants, and Net Perceptions' broad suite of products positions the company as a critical partner in this area. We believe that our estimates remain conservative, with upside coming from the addition of new customers and from higher revenue per client as Net Perceptions' product offerings grow.
eBusiness Update - Eric Upin - mailto:eric@rsco.com
FORMAL LAUNCH OF B2B COMMERCE SECTOR: This week we formerly launched focused coverage on Business-to-Business (B2B) eCommerce companies. We believe that B2B companies represent the next major stage of Internet growth and stock appreciation-substantially eclipsing the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) space by several orders of magnitude.
In our opinion, we are approaching an inflection point as the evolution of the Internet and IT systems, coupled with broad market factors, are setting the stage for B2B growth. The evolution of enabling technologies has resulted in the broad access, bandwidth, security and reliability necessary to handle huge transaction volumes. B2C eCommerce has also validated Internet models-as evidenced by the success of companies such as AOL, Amazon, eBay and Yahoo!. In addition, business applications have evolved from back-office accounting and reporting systems to front-office solutions that are now capable of supplier and customer interaction. Moreover, an increasingly competitive marketplace and the need to dot.com the business are compounding demand for B2B solutions.
We believe B2B eCommerce represents one of the largest Internet opportunities moving forward-where the addressable markets and rate of adoption will far exceed B2C. Today, of the more than $20 trillion in goods and services that change hands in the U.S. annually, business-to-business transactions account for approximately $17 trillion, or 85% of total commerce. Assuming 10% of business-to-business transactions in the U.S. move online by 2003, the implied eCommerce value exceeds $1.7 trillion. The global market could more than double the U.S. in size assuming even lower adoption rates.
We believe new companies with new solutions are best positioned to address the complexities and sophistication of B2B. B2B is characterized by intricate handshaking, front-end customization, financing, cross-border logistics and regulations among fragmented buyers and suppliers. Moreover, products are mission critical and highly time-sensitive, resulting in the need for real-time, robust solutions that can handle heavy volume and tightly integrate with back-office systems. Domain expertise is critical-giving rise to vertical solutions that address the unique dynamics of each industry.
We believe B2B will introduce powerful benefits to both buyers and sellers-lowering the cost of doing business, creating markets on a network scale, and improving service levels. B2B lowers product and procurement costs and speeds time-to-market while creating larger markets for suppliers and more vendor choices for buyers. Moreover, it enables suppliers to offer greater breadth of products and services, real-time interaction and shorter delivery times.
We believe B2B business models will enable companies to grow bigger, faster-producing winners with lasting franchises. B2B eCommerce companies will possess a number of attributes, including a high ROI proposition, sticky solutions, and Internet reach. In our opinion, these drivers are fueling rapid adoption and the rise of huge, lasting franchises.
VERTICALNET: This week we initiated research coverage of VerticalNet (VERT) with a Buy rating. VerticalNet operates a portfolio of highly focused, vertical trade communities on the Internet. Each of the company's 47 sites provides content, communities and commerce, including product sales, auctions, industry news, online forums, career centers, and other resources for industry constituents. In our view, VerticalNet has developed a highly scalable model that leverages best practices in terms of strategy, operations and technology infrastructure, enabling the company to quickly build deep vertical solutions.
We are positive on the company and the stock as we believe VerticalNet's portfolio of vertical sites represents a diversified play on B2B eCommerce. In our opinion, VerticalNet is a first mover in the emerging B2B world with an early lead in building the content and communities that lay the foundation for lasting eCommerce franchises. Moreover, VerticalNet's ability to lever the Internet model represents tremendous upside potential-where recurring commerce transactions could profoundly alter the model in terms of revenue growth and longer term profitability.
STAMPS: Stamps.com announced another distribution partner this week, 3M. Beginning in January 2000, promotions for Stamps.com' service will be bundled with 3M products, either in the form of marketing inserts or CD-Roms. In addition, Stamps.com will be the exclusive online postage service promoted on 3M's Web site. In addition, Stamps revealed more details on its arrangements with Lotus and ZDNet this week. For Lotus, Stamps service will be easily accessible through an icon on the Lotus Organizer Release 6 toolbar. Stamps service will be also be available throughout the ZDNet network.
eServices Update - Steven Birer - mailto:steven_birer@rsco.com
Network Solutions reaches agreement; now it reaches for the sky. Network Solutions has been awarded an extension of its contract with the government to act as the registry for the Internet. In exchange for recognizing ICANN as its governing body, Network Solutions was awarded a three-year extension (on top of the one-year remaining) of its registry contract and the right to renew thereafter. Network Solutions will charge $6.00 per year for registry services, down from the current $9.00. On the registrar side of the business, we expect competition to continue to increase; more than 64 companies have signed up to provide these services. We expect Network Solutions to continue to play a meaningful part in the registrar business given its existing relationships with ISPs and direct marketing efforts. How big is the opportunity? If we assume that the marketplace for registered Internet names is 100 million, and we make the further assumption that Network Solutions can maintain 25% market share of the registrar business, we can envision the company generating $850 million a year from just the core business alone. To the extent that the company can leverage its central position on the Internet, revenues would go up from there. In our opinion, Network Solutions remains one of the strongest franchises on the Internet, with strong cash flows and profitability and excellent revenue visibility. With the removal of the uncertainty surrounding the company's agreement with ICANN and the Department of Commerce, we believe that the outlook for the company looks as bright as ever.
Modem Media: The Industry Standard? Modem Media-Poppe Tyson announced that it has been awarded a contract to expand the functionality of The Industry Standard's Web site, TheStandard.com. The Industry Standard is a publication that focuses on Internet-related news and information. Modem Media was hired to build database-driven functionality into TheStandard.com, leading to personalization features, improved customer service, dynamic payment processing and enhanced communications for both visitors and vendors. In our view, the Industry Standard represents another in a string of high profile wins that Modem Media has announced this quarter. We continue to believe that Modem Media is undervalued compared to its peer group; we encourage investors interested in a product-free way to invest in the Internet to seriously consider Modem Media.
HotJobs: Making It Easier To Get In On The Ground Floor. HotJobs announced that it will launch several new career channels including one designed to help people find jobs in start-up companies. The fit seems obvious: start-ups need people, but have limited means to find them, and due to the potential upside in being in on the ground floor of a start-up, many job-seekers clamor to work for them. In addition to the start-up channel, HotJobs is adding channels focused on Sales & Marketing, Retail, Technology and Human Resource. We believe that this emphasizes a critical direction that on-line job sites will take. In our opinion, brand name of a job site will eclipse vertical industry focus as the larger job sites gain scale and create vertical channels under the brand. We believe that HotJobs has excellent brand recognition, and that it is well positioned to be one of the winners in the emerging on-line job search business.
eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com
This week, Fidelity announced an agreement with Lycos that will allow Fidelity's online brokerage customers to use Lycos' personalization products to create customized web sites. Fidelity calls its newly enhanced online brokerage service Powerstreet and has tailored it to meet the needs of active traders. Powerstreet offers faster access, planning tools for long-term financial planning, and free Nasdaq Level II quotes. The service will allow Fidelity to compete with Schwab and E*Trade, which also have personalized web page service. E*Trade also recently announced its acquisition of Confluent Inc., provider of the Abrio calendar engine, in efforts to develop the Personal Financial Information Manager for E*Trade customers.
Volume Update - Trading activity was heavy this week as investors concerned about overvaluation rushed to sell and bargain-hunters rushed to buy technology stocks. This week, September 22-28, volumes on the NetDex increased 35% over last week from 128.0 million shares to 173.0 million shares traded. While volumes are showing signs of recovery from the seasonal slowdown, total NetDex volume for the quarter to date still lags with 9.18 billion shares traded, 23% lower than last quarter's volume over the same period of 11.9 billion. Volumes for the TechDex reached their highest point this quarter this week, totaling 1.65 billion shares traded, up 12% from last week's volume of 1.47 billion. However, for the quarter up until September 28, TechDex total volume is only 18.3 billion, down 19% from last quarter's volume over the same period of 22.7 billion.
While volumes were way up this week, the eBrokerDex was once again down as a result of general market decline. The Nasdaq ended the week at 2756.25 on September 28, down 3.5% from last week. The eBrokerDex closed at 111 this report week (September 22-28), down 6.7% from last week's Index of 119 and down 39% from the beginning of the quarter. However, on Wednesday (9/29), eBrokerage stocks bounced back a bit, closing at 117, up 5% from the previous day.
ECN Update- ECNs are gaining an increasing number of Nasdaq shares and are expected to do the same in listed securities. In order to improve after-hour trading conditions, eight leading ECNs recently signed a non-exclusive agreement to link up their systems and make trading information available to all their customers. The ECNs involved are Archipelago, B-Trade, BRUT, Instinet, Island, MarketXT, REDIBook, and Strike Technologies. In our opinion, this move will facilitate the execution of after-hour customer orders by providing a consolidated pricing mechanism.
Several online brokers have announced plans to offer online trading through these ECNs. Ameritrade recently announced that it will offer extended hours trading through several ECNs, including Island and MarketXT, as well as through Knight Securities and the Chicago Stock Exchange. E*Trade plans to offer after-hour trading through an agreement with Instinet, while DLJ Direct currently uses Instinet to execute after-hour trades for its Select Client Group.
Levitt Urges Single Electronic Venue- While ECNs currently account for approximately 30% of Nasdaq trading volume, they receive very little Big Board trading due to certain NYSE rules and regulations. However, in a speech last Thursday at Columbia University, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt urged the NYSE to change the rules in order for customers to take full advantage of ECNs. Levitt would like to see a single venue for displaying orders from the different exchanges so that customers can easily access stock information.
Security First Technologies Update- Security First (SONE), a leading provider of Internet applications for financial institutions, announced plans to acquire VerticalOne Corporation for approximately $166 million in stock. VerticalOne is a privately held institution that provides technology that consolidates, organizes, and presents personal account information over the Internet. Security First currently provides its Internet banking software to over 100 financial institutions. This acquisition will expand Security First's product offering to provide technology that aggregates personal account information and online account summaries in one page while linking to other transaction sites. By allowing Security First's customers t |