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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (52253)	10/1/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

NAPM report this morning suggests economy is unusually healthy. Gee, I wonder what high oil prices coupled with a strong economy will do to the earnings of the EnP's? Market concerned that high energy prices alone might not be inflationary enough to slow down the economy. Perhaps fed will raise? Fed will wait and allow energy prices to have their effect IMHO. Greenspan is smart enough to see that it takes time for the effect to trickle through the economy.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (52253)	10/1/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: Andrew Brockway	Respond to of 95453

EEX: Still a lot of selling (volume) going on. Who's so anxious to dump it? Is it short interest? Slider, you mentioned you were waiting for the volume to slow before taking a look. Are you still thinking along those lines? Anyone have thoughts on EEX? Thanks in advance. Andrew

To: Gary Burton who wrote (52253)	10/1/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

RRC; EEX ; BSNX ... Some unique market reactions that are worth noting for trading, or longterm buy & holders... BSNX: got a table pounding upgrade by Goldman last friday (?) sat and did not move for 2-3 days; then took of 20% from $20 to $24 in 2-3 days.... anyone who was following BSNX & saw the upgrade that did not hesitate; did very well. The follow up buying tells me many institutional funds are skittish here - looking for a bottom to be firmly in place; but - they badly want in here before Q3 earnings come out. Q3 will be outstanding accross the board for the E&P sector; it will be the first qtr to really show the benefit of an entire qtr of higher realized oil & gas prices & the first qtr to substantially beat prior qtr & year over year qtr comparisons... if Oil & Gas prices are stable; these stocks fly post Q3 reporting. If you've followed the companies and know where you see value; do not hesitate... ie: BSNX. PXD acted the same way... numerous upgrades and positive comments, had solid support for 3+ months; it sold off on some Q3 window dressing; people hesitated (some bought (VBG); then it turn and ran 15% from its intra day low on big block buying... OEI did the same thing. Company is allready a value-laggard play, with huge upside exploration/production capacity. The company is allready on record for saying it will substantially surpass Q3 analyst estimates. Company is balanced to Oil & Gas (which is the sweet spot presently) and has had good support of late; sold off & again some hesitated - then the institutions came in with big block buying. In the OSX stocks - GLBL was the posterchild for trusting the story, the inherent value and the numbers; this was "THE" best buy in service/driller stocks in this blow off imho - and institutions stepped in large. Moral to the story: If you've been following the stock, know & believe in the story and trust the numbers; do NOT hesitate when these selloff/retrace ... buy them.Those that did have been rewarded very nicely. EEX: very interesting play. I traded the initial blow off for 10-15%. Held 1/4 of my orig purchase at $3 3/8ths; bought more at $3 1//16ths and am sitting large here at $2 11/16ths (moved my limit lower due to the series of 5-10K block sells all through out the day to the close). Let this one come to you - definitely average in... but; personally - I am not hesitating chasing it... Some funds are going to sell to take the tax loss - they would be stupid not to right here - this is an important factor for this stock as opposed to many other E&P's for which 99% of fund managers have "no loss" to take ! For EEX - this is a buying opp - knowing in advance that this "IS" going to happen... its happening right now... I know many Institutions & Analysts still believe in the inherent value and the story longterm. A few wrote positive commentary after this latest drilling disappointment. Many still are holding their price targets at $10-11 ; and are pointing to the fundamental value, cash flow and especially to the long line of drilling prospects allready scheduled and the $300 M + of cash/credit allready in place to continue. This recent abandonment has led to a 40% selloff of the stock - but; this event was not more than a 5% event in the thinking of most... certainly not a company breaking event as the selloff indicates. Actually; what this is - is a very predictable and understandable human reaction. Frustration and disappointment have led to "some" investors just dumping... this has happened after each large potential drilling prospect. The stock runs up 20% or so, right before results; then blows off on a 2:1 basis if poor results are announced. Strong block buying soon follows as the fundamental value, their good cash flow; huge cash & credit line position give EEX a couple of years of drilling & exploration all ready scheduled for their GOM properties. This is a gift...1/20th of their cash/credit line was spent on this project; just 5%; but the stock sold off 40% ???? I'll take those odds.... especially with both the cash/credit & cash flow - and the projects; to drill another 18-20 wells; with many individual prospects being potential "Company makers"... surely the risk exists - and this is a speculative play to a degree; as it is also a pure bottom fishing value play; but this company isn't going anywhere for 2 years +.... give me a 40% reaction to a 5% event anytime, with 2 years + remaining on the "cash" clock ?!?!... I'm in. They (Institutions) will be back after taking the tax loss right here. EEX bottomline" a 5% event triggered a 40% selloff. Actually the allready expected "tax loss" selling anomaly triggered the event. Knowing that this would lead to "enhanced/exaggerated" selling is a buying opp; and most importantly - has $300M + and 2 years of drill ready GOM prospects... this aint going "under" anytime soon... RRC: ... again; everyone knew that the JV was closing... I would be surprised to see the stock ramp on the news, that everyone allready knew - wasn't news... I think the sentiment on Nat Gas storage #'s and prices has led to a hesitation by funds. They will want to see Q3 reporting and see the hedging programs going forward... but; this is a buying opp on any retraces here. Again; if you believe the story; if you "know" & trust the numbers... we know support is at $4 even in a total market blow off; so anything $4 1/2ish or under here; is a good point to add; waiting for Q3 to unfold... RRC will be fine - "when", not "if"... I think one of the least risky; but with still 20-50% nearterm appreciation potential; are the larger cap; formerly high debt/leveraged 2nd tier E&P's with UPR, OEI, PXD being my 3 fav's. As these companies are balanced to crude & gas (with crude actually being the play here perhaps in this environment). All 3 of these comapnies have just completed extensive deleveraging/divesture programs that have gotten accolades from Wall Street. All are poised for substantial turn arounds in this environment and are superb values; who as 2nd tier Institutional fav's will get strong, strong buying by the funds here. Potentially not the "doubles" as RRC, or CRK may be longerterm; but must owns here imho... It's real interesting out here now... patience; some nimbleness - trimming on weakness; adding on bottom support is prudent. Stockpicking is paramount here... holding GLBL MDR ESV in driller/service; OEI UPR PXD large in E&Ps; in & out building positions in CRK RRC a couple of other small positions; Trading EEX here - averaging in as low as they want to take her; ultimately I will sell on the "pop" and will keep some "zero/low" cost basis shares longterm... and still "got" some MEXP (VBG). ... MDR is "the" sleeper ... just watch. On a break of $18 1/2 ish - I buy "calls" with reckless abandon... Praying for one last chance at $11-12 FLC as well...