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To: bill meehan who wrote (65692)	10/1/1999 10:09:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

AG likes that indicator a lot. The certainty of no Fed hike Tues. has diminished indeed. If Bulls don't take profits now, When???? What is the upside of holding on to stocks after this huge runup??? Higher earnings?? Higher P/Es??? Lower rates??? Foreign buying??? NO,NO,NO and NO. Instituions may lay in a barrage of hedges in SPoos and OEX puts today. Active fund managers HAVE TO take some profits off the table TODAY and buy downside protection. BWDIK.

To: bill meehan who wrote (65692)	10/1/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

more denial that the sky is blue.... we're at the major tunring pt here, as you derivatives tend to be self fullfilling once they get turned... today 1 of 2 things happens.... 1. US paper recovers and we go for one more blowoff w/ even fewer issues and bonds rally slightly 2. bonds close down and break the downtrend in yields on the weekly chart. the DOW breaks below weekly trendline, and gold and its shares turn back up. you've gopt lots of conflicting theories out there right now that are being sorted out... some see the stock mess, but have bet onbonds.. others see a world economic boom and are long commodities and stocks.. but NOBODY is long gold and short stocks and bonds. so #2 has to be the way it plays out... the mkt will slowly decide today imo, and we'll have an answer by the close. vol should be big. BWDIK? i still own goldshares... -g-