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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (7284)	10/1/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Hey, T-boy, I am not sure if I made my own experience in Q clear. I bought on the IPO, sold out two years later, invested elsewhere, and got back into Q in April of '99. In my case, my calculations showed that I did twice as well this way as if I had stayed in Q all of the time. Of course, I did damn well when I was out of it, and invested the proceeds. This is just one case, and it could have gone the other way. However, I am now convinced that the thing for me to do is to buy in when things are a lock. When I look at the Rambus situation, it only reinforces my belief.

To: tekboy who wrote (7284)	10/1/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> I'm not sure how representative QCOM is of the higher primates, but its chart is certainly distinctive, with official chasm-crossing (the Ericsson deal) representing a clean break and a dramatic difference in returns. We may be seeing the same type of break today with Gemstar, now at a new all time high (rtq +3 3/4 in a down market). Stew and Merlin have dubbed it a Gorilla, and I think they got it right. uf

To: tekboy who wrote (7284)	10/1/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy, << I'm not sure how representative QCOM is of the higher primates, but its chart is certainly distinctive, with official chasm-crossing (the Ericsson deal) representing a clean break and a dramatic difference in returns. >> Let it be recorded that the date of the official chasm crossed date was March 25, 1999. Thucydides (Sir Thucididies ) take note. On that day they became the 3G Gorilla, the Gorilla of wireless Air Interfaces that enable 3G regardless of technology and a major player in 2G wireless by virtue of real recognition of cdma outside of the Gilder Gang. Some are even calling them the Gorilla of Wireless or Wireless Data but that is a stretch, IMO. << How true was that of the other known gorillas? >> I'm not sure that the date can be fixed as definitively for any other Gorilla, although one could probably pick a date for Intel (based on an IBM decision) or Microsoft (based on an IBM decision) if so inclined. For me, it is the only time I have been invested in a Gorilla before the crossing date so it is pretty exciting. For those that are not totally of the CDMA persuasion there is an interesting article about John Stanton called "VoiceStream Takes Big Bite, Swims With The Sharks" at: wirelessweek.com For those of us heavily invested in Qualcomm, objectively watching what the competition is up to, sure does not hurt (IMO). BTW: Good thoughts on Rambus. TGFTT on that number. I was darned close to leaping before and even after recent events trying to catch another Q early. - Eric -

To: tekboy who wrote (7284)	10/2/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy, I'm not sure how representative QCOM is of the higher primates, but its chart is certainly distinctive, with official chasm-crossing (the Ericsson deal) representing a clean break and a dramatic difference in returns. How true was that of the other known gorillas? I've got a couple minor points followed by what might be a more significant point. You get to decide. :) I think the Ericsson deal at the most signified the start of the tornado, not the chasm. I actually place the start about a year earlier, in April, 1998, based on the worldwide increasing rate of CDMA subscribers. I've never taken the time to determine when CDMA adoption might have crossed the chasm. I'd be interested in seeing anyone's opinion about that and the supporting evidence. Determining when a product crosses the chasm is one of the most difficult aspects (for me) of gorilla gaming. If looking back at CDMA adoption helps us determine that in the future for other products, I'm all eyes and ears. I'm not sure a post-Ericcson-deal comparison of Qualcomm with other gorillas will be valid. If the company announces the sale of its handset division by the end of the year as is the goal, it might be difficult to find an existing gorilla that at any time had its business model change as dramatically as Qualcomm's in such a short period of time. Going from a business model that builds the infrastructure and the end-user product to a business model that does neither in less than a year is astounding, possibly never done before. --Mike Buckley