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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (965)	10/1/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

Rick, I'm also an NPSP fan - it's not a "7" in your terms, but it's more than a smidge, not having the extreme risk associated with stocks like CTII and RGEN. Stock certainly hasn't done much to date, as AMGN ambles along with the calcimimetic trials. I think trying to pick 50-100X stocks is a poor investment strategy in biotechland. It mostly means you are investing in pico-caps that have a distant shot at a big indication. My own view is that you should shoot for the 5-10x stocks. However if you are going to make us play the 50-100X game, then GZMO probably has as good a shot as anyone. Peter

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (965)	10/2/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: RWReeves	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

50-100x may be too ambitious Imo, since it requires a multi-year string of winners, infrastructure and market development and consistently good IP, and the ability to avoid a munch in the transition. Even AMGN is a munchable, albeit for only a few. I also believe all the partnering has given away much of the upside many companies have in the form of a call to big brudda. I do believe there are such companies but all of them are private at the moment, which does you almost no good. I say "almost" because it is not out of the realm of possibility to get your hands on some stock through private deals, vc, consulting and other relationships. In other words, I would say the first 10-50x and more happens in the march to IPO and the second stage 5-20x happens post IPO. That's consistent with the risk-adjusted cost of capital theory also. The public, as has been amply pointed out on this thread and elsewhere, isn't all that generous in valuing biotech compared to big pharma. I take it search is consistent with your other interest to identify the second tiers that can make it to first tier without additional (dilutive?)financing? RWR

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (965)	10/2/1999 8:12:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

Rick, 50-100 times in 10 years. Not my strategy in my core investment portfolio but for the kids its a great idea. From a tax standpoint holding one or two stocks that climb the mountain is incredibly tax efficient. I think you need a few ingredients such as: -products that serve a huge market -underlying technology that is a breakthrough and is sustainable and can be protected -the value in the future is not understood by the street either because of a past failure or your knowledge base in the area is far superior to the street. -a depressed small cap market -superb forward thinking management. First choices BTRN GLFD GZTC Second choices MLMN BPUR Third choices INCY GZMO NBIX By the way NPSP also looks good to me as well but I need to learn more before adding it. Interestingly many of the choices are not in the VD portfolio. With 50 to 1 opportunities so comes risk. I agree that the way to play this strategy is to own a bunch hoping that a few will hit big. Its like being a VC with public companies. Maybe next we can do most likely to be 5-10 baggers in 3 years. I think I can be more helpful there. V1