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To: Defrocked who wrote (65741)	10/1/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 86076

ya buyin the dip? (BG)

To: Defrocked who wrote (65741)	10/1/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

Three reasons why I'm extremely bearish: (1)The market expectation of a rate hike is currently running less than 25%yes/75%no. Yet McDonough said the running rate for GDP is probably 4%. Furthermore, the PI and NAPM were absolutely horrible in terms of bullish confirmation for any slowdown in activity or prices. The market will have to price in a rate hike expectation of at least 50/50 if not 65%yes/35%no. That's what bonds are doing today. (2)If the Fed does not hike rates Tuesday, the dollar and the bond will get severely smacked. After all, the Europeans and Japanese now have better investment prospects at home without currency risk. (3)One should buy on the rumor, sell on the fact,no??? It doesn't get any better for equities going forward this year. Anybody who wants to be long equities is already in, to the hilt. When unemployment is released next Friday it will highlight the Fed's lack of action. The Oct. 28th release of Q3GDP will be sold on the "good news" that GDP is running greater than 4%. Profits need to be taken and liquidity increased for Y2K. BWDIK.IDKJS.IMHO.