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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: long-gone who wrote (41822)10/1/1999 5:52:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116756
 
Richard,

agreed on the Swiss. But I would suggest that this includes being self serving enough to change their minds on the co-ordinated statement and sell more gold if the price suits. Fwiw they have no been pretty consistent about wanting to eventually sell half their holdings. The definition of eventually is of course critical :)

Yes there have been a lot of ups and downs and I am by no means certain about whether this particular short squeeze is over. I'm looking at the price action just like you and wondering what it means. You ask if after a one week move of $50 whether a $25 pullback could be normal. Sure it could. My comment on this was related to my experience trading currencies and bonds. I had a 'rule' I use to teach my junior traders, surprised markets settle on extremes. If a market is really caught it runs and doesn't give you an easy window. Markets love to make extreme closes before weekends and really make people suffer. The fact that gold didn't do this and leases softened makes be wonder how bad things really are. That doesn't mean the market isn't still short, it just makes me wonder how short. It doesn't appear to me to be trading as if it were currently badly short. Remember I said on the other thread that I thought we could see 350.

A little clarification on my background. First, I traded currency and bond derivatives. I have never traded gold directly and am not part of the gold market. As an interest rate derivative trader I got involved with the lease market in the 80s and have experience directly with trading the interest rate risk on leases ever since. But I have no direct professional exposure to trading spot gold. I reported some comments earlier that were observations from my friends in the markets. I have no direct knowledge as to whether they are right but I trust them and my perception of the way gold is trading jives with what they are saying. Secondly I no longer have direct exposure to the market. I retired in June, that is why I have been away from SI for long stretches.

Richard I am just reporting as well. I'm always open to a discussion and enjoy debating view points. I believe I have always turned my cards face up and hope my clarification above fills in any gaps or misunderstanding.

Henry