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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (41830)10/2/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116759
 
Thanks Bobby, flattery will get me every time -g-
I'll have to tell you and Hutch about some of my stock picks to give you a more balanced view of my fallibility -g-

I see from the links that you like me are one of the stubborn oldtimers who stick to the old SI.

I find the bond market very perplexing at the moment as well. I told you a few days ago I thought the bonds would be going sideways in the near term. The action of the last two days is troubling. Bonds need to hold these levels are there is a risk of a big breakdown. Fwiw longer term I think bond rates will go somewhat higher. The main reason is that I'm beginning to think we will see at least 2 more Fed hikes, although they may wait till next year.

BTW I wouldn't put to much wait on the numbers regarding the US savings rate. There is a methodology oddity in the calculation that significantly understates the savings rates when capital gains are high. I've seen estimates that the US savings rate is still near its longer term trend, 6-8%.

Henry