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Non-Tech : Quiet Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: QuietWon who wrote (85)	10/2/1999 12:11:00 AM
From: QuietWon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186

FVCX ? more on analyst. If this analyst/analyst's firm does not reverse/change their recommendation in the next while, they will not look that good to their clients, imo. Then again, they may wait for others...the Wall Street herd mentality concept But, BearStearns usually quite good, that's why I'd say they'll probably change soon. BTW, they have a $75 target on GBIX (web-hoster, streaming media a.k.a. streaming audio & streaming VIDEO), re-iterated a Buy earlier this week on GBIX (after visiting the data center ... gheez, I visited the data center on Sept 1st) and was very impressed -- read the GBIX and "Quiet Thoughts" threads around Sept 1, going forward. It's those analysts at H&Q which should take another look at FVCX and say something, imo. Maybe all the analysts are waiting until the price gets higher, after having their clients buy in now. Then, when the price is higher and they make a recommendation, the price will go even higher and they'll make a lot of $ for their clients. And finally, the cooled down QW says, hey analysts, you know, just wait until the quarterly results and the usual conference call. Then you can say what you probably are already thinking, that the inventory items/problems are not there, that FVC has worked solidified virtually all the components within its management control -> forged a marketing venture with the leading solutions provider in the market, Polycom (PLCM), went into their lab backroom and developed additional products including an interoperability with the H323 standard (linking IP & ATM based platforms), and delivered on the contracts they mentioned in the last quarterly conference call. Management gets an A for execution this quarter and with the demographics/technology in place at the high level, management says they'll be profitable in 1999Q4 - imo, the Revenue increase% in Q4 will be very strong (depends on how exactly the accountants permit the revs to be recorded - and I hope FVCX is conservative and holds some back for 2000Q1 if not needed in 1999Q4) and earnings will be positive in 1999Q4, I agree. Now, if 1999Q3 by some chance ends up with breakeven or positive earnings, that will be a surprise and on that basis management and the stock price deserve to be very well rewarded, imo, and also, imo, FVCX deserves to be $5+ gain in the day or two around earnings as they've done much better than expected and it signifies the market has started to grow sooner than expected. What is triple icing on the cake would be a deal with QWST. Quadruple icing would be if there is any mention that FVCX is providing their switched-virtual-circuits (SVCs) to Cisco (Cisco does not have what FVCX has). Quintuple icing would be recognition by people in the market that FVCX has caching technology - nobody seems to mention or care, and yet look at INKT and Network Appliance. Sextuple, would be orders from Europe ... from FVC.com-UK. 7th would any company taking a stake in FVCX -- QWST ? ALA? how about waiting until January when FVCX is in the $20 range. FVCX steps just like that of IMCL, imo. Do I hear CNBC doing a segment on the sector? Surely, they would mention FVCX. Where the heck is Cramer? Naw, better yet, stay away Cramer. Hey Tokyo Joe and Anthony, this is a real company, well research, having a "killer app" - I'd get in and stay in BEFORE the analysts and CNBC stuff. Finally, as to the note mentioned above about Bear Stearns visiting GBIX's facilities earlier this week and that I had been there on Sept 1: I mention it with the mindset that hey, I visited the co (after doing research & watching the stock) and believe I have at least some smarts...and likely I've done research to the extent an analyst would do (I suspect companies will say more to analysts though). I've come up with my take on a company and, I figure if you don't believe me, then take the analyst's word...even if they arrive at the same conclusion later than someone else, it's their job and likely, if they had done so on the same date and time as me, they'd have the same conclusion then. My other point: I stand behind my assessment.