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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7319)	10/2/1999 1:31:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Speaking of Qualcomm's tornado ... :) I saw in another forum a quote from a representative of the CDMA group that they are on target for their goal of having 50 million CDMA subscribers by year end. If that happens, we'll continue to see increasing growth in CDMA adoption. Take a look at my spreadsheet below. The upcoming quarters are the last two lines of the table. They show what the numbers might look like to get to the goal of 50 million CDMA subscribers. The columns are numbered as follows: 1: Quarter ending in the month shown 2: Total Subscribers X 1000 3: Net New Subscribers X 1000 4: Sequential Growth of Net New Subscribers 5: Growth of Net New Subscribers compared with the year-earlier quarter 6: Growth of Total Subscribers compared to one year earlier (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Sep-97 4,250 NA NA NA NA Dec-97 7,800 3550 NA NA NA Mar-98 9,225 1425 -60% NA NA Jun-98 12,130 2905 104% NA NA Sep-98 16,000 3870 33% NA 276% Dec-98 23,000 7000 81% 97% 195% Mar-99 28,515 5515 -21% 287% 209% Jun-99 33,622 5107 -7% 76% 177% Sep-99 40,172 6550 28% 69% 151% Dec-99 50,000 9828 92% 154% 213% --Mike Buckley

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7319)	10/2/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, << Can you be more specific about that "official" date? :) >> I did get a bit enthusiastically emphatic, eh? :) I'll post back on this subject, however, after I chase the little white sphere around 18 holes on yet another grand Delaware Saturday. << Seriously, what did you learn about product adoption that caused you to think it crossed the chasm? >> Upon reflection, (starting immediately after posting yesterday afternoon, and continuing until I read your post quoted above this morning) it occurred to me that indeed the date flagged the start of the Tornado, but that Qualcomm was indeed already in the Bowling Alley, hence had indeed crossed the chasm. Here I am relying on "Inside the Tornado" rather than the the FM or RM. Based on this I decided that I would sneak a peak at the RM to refresh myself on how Geoff differentiates the bowling alley from the tornado itself in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle, in the investing manual, as opposed to the marketing manual. << My equally "official" start of the tornado is almost exactly one year before your crossing of the chasm >> Reading (back and ) ahead a few posts, I see you have expanded upon this thought. In addition I see that it has encouraged some intelligent discussion which is the great part about this thread. I particularly like StockHawk's "Possible Group Project" (post 7317). Upon first opening the RM (which I had promised I wouldn't do until I boarded the plane for my golf outing next Thursday) I will immediately turn to page 223 that StockHawk referenced. << One of us is wrong >> If its me, it will not be the first time. Nothing wrong with being wrong as long as you recognize that you are and learn from it or revise your thinking as a result of it. I see that you "actually place the start about a year earlier, in April, 1998, based on the worldwide increasing rate of CDMA subscribers". Is this the first quarter that the % worldwide growth of CDMA first exceeded that of GSM? Perhaps it was even earlier. Candidly I never looked at that particular number till about early March of this year when the official subscriber numbers for 98 were tallied. The reason for this is that actual subscriber growth and new networks on line for CDMA, in years prior to 1998, lagged GSM by such a huge amount. In addition to this CDMA carriers had not implemented any substantial data initiatives on a commercial scale making CDMA something less than a full fledged digital wireless technology in my mind. I have always equated digital wireless telephony with the capability to handle both voice and data, (which CDMA now has proved in spades it is capable of). One thing for certain about the March 25 date, It was the date that I promoted Q to Gorilla in my own mind, and posted to a fellow Gorilla Hunter (that unfortunately stays focused on a few other threads and doesn't post here) that I had finally found a gorilla that I had invested in before it became one. Digressing a bit from the subject at hand: another thing I plan to do is go back and check when I first posted to this thread and started participating in it. I suspect it will be close to the date I emphatically referenced in my previous post. The reason for this is that it is about the time that many participants here started wandering over to the "Coming of Range" thread, calling my attention to this one. I had checked out the earlier Gorilla Game thread which was started shortly after GG was published, but quickly lost interest in it. This thread has certainly turned out to be what that one hoped to be, and has certainly refined my thinking about Gorilla Investing. Please excuse this longish post. By rambling on here longer than intended it looks like I've missed my putting practice. <g> - Eric -