To: Mr. Big who wrote (71 ) 10/2/1999 9:48:00 AM From: sam Respond to of 377
Don't get me wrong, I think the SAN space is gonna be huge. It is predicted to grow to over 10 billion a year in two years. Talk about growth! All the competing companies are gonna do well. No doubt about it. But, BRCD is clearly the one to beat. Why? Because the switch market is the definitely one to win. And BRCD controls perhaps 80% of that market. ANCR? Their problem is that they have no significant installed base, a clunky product. VIXL and ZOOX both are primarily hub sellers...and both want to win switch clients in a big way. Why? Because the switch market is growing much faster than the hub market. So both have recently entered the switch space in a grand way with new products. To be fair we have to give them some time to win clients. And, they both will. VIXL's product, the 8100, was tested against BRCD's Silkworm 2100 and did quite well, but not good enough to "wow" the industry. zdnet.com Zoox' Capillex is the first switch to be expandable to up to 34 ports. Lots of positive feedback from clients thus far. "Next generation" improvements are also due (December quarter) that some feel may make the switch capable of winning lots of share from BRCD. But the share IS BRCD's to lose. No question about it. And, only time will tell. That said, both VIXL and ZOOX stocks will jump markedly after notching any major switch wins. Just feast your eyes on the differences between BRCD and VIXL/ZOOX market caps to get a feel for the potential runs here. In the meantime, from a technical standpoint, VIXL will have a series of IPO related runs that could be quite nice...and ZOOX is due for a test of its recent high. JMHO