To: Carl who wrote (2349 ) 10/2/1999 7:03:00 PM From: Sulayman Respond to of 3243
Now now Carl. Such sarcasm is not befitting of someone as mature and experienced as you. You want a proper understanding of the issues ? Ok here it is for you then. DJI is not going down to 5000 for the following reasons; 1. It is too widely held throughout the world and too much of the global economy depends on it. American corporations are integrated with almost every major player across the globe. In the Middle East, where all the oil comes from, the US is pretty much a partner in every venture and in return these companies and individuals hold equity in many US companies. It helps them benefit from the expertise of the US meganationals and at the same time they buy US equities to benefit from the business that the Americans may get from them. Capital Gains as well as profit from their normal operations. In South Asia, the same applies. From Carrier air conditioners to Chrysler cars. The Far East is seen as a competitor to the US but you must also keep in mind that many US companies are also involved the in the activities of those Asian companies. It is an open market whereby these Asian companies buy local, European or US products interchangeably based on price competition (and quality). This also entrenchs the American business interests and so is good for the DJI. All this points to the fact that US business is so entrenched throughout the world and so widely held by everyone the world over that such a panic sell is possible, but not to those absurd levels which you have stated. The difference really between 1987 and today is that the US has become the number one key engine to growth in the entire world and it cannot just drop like that. 2. All this above is supported by one major factor. The US military and defence. This is a controversial issue so I really won't go into too much detail but suffice it to say that all policies in the world are atleast approved by Washington if not outright written by them. This includes much of Canadian foreign policy. The benefit of this for the DJI is that external factors are reduced, eg; stable flow of oil throughout the world (Gulf War). Try and look at the big picture and realize that the world has changed too much from the past for us to think that the exact same is going to happen. The US's prosperity at this point means prosperity for everyone because it is really the only market that everyone runs to in the time of panic since it is the the sole superpower of the world. I think that takes care of much of the 'unknowns' that may plague most equities markets throughout the world. Really, it is the unknown factor, (surprises)that make such a panic sell possible. As far as a weak tech market goes. I think you are living in lala land. What weak tech market ? It is fast moving and so darlings become dogs overnight. What may one day be the promise of the future will not get such a warm welcome tommorrow because of two reasons; 1. Technology changes so fast and so obsoletion is a major issue. 2. Anything that is shown to have some sort of value is given way over its full value in no time at all. What this means is that companies that promise to changes the way of the future go up 100s of percents in a few days and then really leave little room for movement because they have already gone up. The world is watching and so they just jump from one trend to the next and so the underlying theme of all this is the tech sector not the individual companies. The full extent of these changes is still being explored and it will go as far as your imagination stretchs before reaching a critical point where the number of new ideas relating to this field start slowing down. That is a long way off. Y2k is ofcourse the toughest one to answer and so I tend not to make any prediction on this one. I just wish to say that I think the Y2k stigma is kind of a good thing for the DJI because it helps bring not only the US market down a little, but it also helps bring all the world's markets down. The thing is that once this fear/fact is behind us, the US will rise much faster than anyone else in the world and that will give them further opportunity to expand globally and make this whole concept of 'globalization' take a HUGE leap forward. All this may be a little much for you but try and picture the larger scene. Keep in mind also that I have summarized a discussion that can fill thousands of pages into one. If you disagree, put your money where your mouth is and short !