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To: Glen2 who wrote (48859)	10/2/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

glen, the #1 contributor to mu's stock price is the current credit bubble. the s&p credit ratio is 0.24. that means for every 100 companies that had their credit downgraded, 24 were upgraded. when this credit bubble bursts, mu stock price (and all the "nifty 50" stock prices, housing prices, demand and jobs) will collapse. look at the debt mu is carrying now. the "scenario" is based on mu management knowing that they will NEVER be able to pay off current debt with free cash flow, therefore, they have to dole it out in stock. i'm not convinced mu management is that smart to know they can't ever pay this debt off. they appear to believe the nonsense about hyper growth more than anybody (eg, building a billion $$$ fab at the top of the market).

To: Glen2 who wrote (48859)	10/2/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Glen2 You wrote Three things affect MU's price: 1. Spot price of DRAM 2. MU earnings 3. PC Production Spot prices have quadrupled in only four months. They won't grow so dramatically over the next four months. OEM's now pay about half of the spot price. The MU stock price could overact to news later this quarter to a decline in the spot price. Earnings are on the rise. Peter Wolff of ING Barings said on Friday that he expects the price of MU to equal 20X its earnings over the next 12 months. Dan Niles of BancBoston Robertson Stephens is forecasting 0.17 loss in the qtr ended August, 0.62 earnings in the 1st fiscal qtr ending Nov., and $4.00 for FY2000, (ending 8/00). Joe Osha of Merrill Lynch also forecast $4.00 on Friday, 10/1. MU has declining manufacturing cost on increasing volume. Personal Computers are the largest consumer of DRAM. Every fourth calendar quarter, PC analysts commence a battle of predictions regarding the growth or lack of growth for that sector. In recent years, the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter for the PC sector. Strong PC demand drives demand for DRAM. During the next 90 days, bearish PC analysts can create buying opportunities for MU investors/speculators. Good trading, This may read a little better. Larry Dudash

To: Glen2 who wrote (48859)	10/2/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Glen, you might try that carriage return next time. Seems like some concern is on your third thing. Some are concerned that the quake will affect demand because PC shipments could be hindered. I really think it will be limited to a few categories,but the top OEM PC guys should be ok and DRAM demand will continue to be strong thus keeping the price to majors around $9-10. The spot has to come down eventually and I do worry it will cause MU to react. I think most investors realize though long term most of MU's output is to the OEM;s anyway and will be the key for their growth in earnings not the temporary spot price. So I hope for a good earnings and conf call Monday and a favorable reaction Tuesday. I maybe the only one in this buy camp, but shorts have some risk here I think. I guess we will find out Monday/ Good trading.