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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (52315)	10/2/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Well, Big--I guess your readers will now push FGI up a few 1/8ths on Monday/Tues so we can put in the Wave 4 fake rally so that we can finally get Wave 5 started down, thereby ending the entire sequence at a new low. The earlier the better in my view as I'm beginning to yawn a bit on this one (vbg). Not saying I'll buy it at the new low, but who knows

To: Big Dog who wrote (52315)	10/4/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog: re" your comments on FGI & TODAY is "D" Day for FGI Big; I've allways had great respect for you take on the industry; as someone who works directly at the frontline; I allways take your comments as cutting edge... but; perhaps this is one time where the analysts, the brokerage houses and the traders opinion's are more important than others... If FGI does not "pop" and pop significantly today off of your newsletter; I humbly suggest that individual investors set their emotional baggage, their unfailing allegiance and their blind loyaltly aside... Big; virtually all analysts are in total agreement after talking directly to the Oil majors, major independants, the Banks, The Bond rating agencies et al; all agree in the following: 1. Cap Ex Spending: ...that there simply will not be anywhere near the Cap Ex $ spent on Offshore Rig Construtction that there was on this last cycle; ie: The Pie has shrunk - stupid... 2. Sentiment towards massive debt/Cap ex spending: .. that the recent wave of cancellation attempts, litigation, delays; the falling dayrates on Offshore contract rollovers (*see analyst comments on DO)plus the near "FLEET" of stacked offshore rigs and the number of farmouts available; make this nearly as obvious as a 2x4 across the forehead... 3. Dayrates & Utilization fundamentals: ...that quite simply; untill rollover contracts for Offshore Drillers like RIG & DO quit declining and start rolling over to higher levels supporting newbuilds - that any degree of new construction in Offshore Rigs is a moot point. The same goes for utilization... Doesn't FLC nearly have a cold stacked fleet nearly equal to their acquisition of Cliffs Drilling !?! 4. Backlog: ...quite simply untill FGI adds substantial; with substantial meaning - 2+ $150+ Million dollar orders on the backlog; then FGI will NOT get any positive support from the market 5. Merger challenges ... the assimilation of corporate cultures; which is actually the merger of 2 opposing rivals here; has more than its fair share of challenges. Even the most optimistic traders who even are bullish on FGI as a "longterm" play (of which I am actually...) all agree that FGI/HLX is going to need to show the Street 2-3 reporting quarters of #'s post merger before Wall Street puts "any" wind in FGI/HLX's sails... ..PS: their is more than one camp who thinks HLX will demand a higher ratio to close... this is a minor factor however. 6. The short interest: ...reportedly Holloway has said he has not hedged any of his long positions; I would take him at his word... but; this is actually bad news for longs. The best answer in the world would have been that Holloway, or other insiders were doing nothing more than being prudent in their holdings. That these are now - "true" & pure shorts; is not what the longs wanted to hear... 7. The "Tape"... the "Trend" ... reality must step between emotion, bind loyalty and ones portfolio. Most FGI individual investors have ridden this down from $15-$20 and in some cases; from even higher levels. Those on margin were crushed in the recent freefall from $18-20 to sub $10; this has been brutal. Those riding FGI's fall here; missed "doubles" left & right in the oilpatch. The story is not going to be one of celebrating the inevitable "emotional" pop that FGI should/could get from Holloways road show; as the story is that FGI holders are nearly a "double" away from merely matching the market, or at least the numerous "Doubles" accross the patch of late... Sadly; even at $18 FGI - there will be nothing to celebrate for 85% of all FGI individual investors... they'll merely be even with the market; and they'll never be able to recoup the capital lost to margin calls. Big; I hope you are right; because if there is this behind the scenes robust Offshore Rig Construction demand; that means that the E&P's win, the drillers win and that is good news for the entire Oilpatch. I have no problem going long FGI; I will look to play the "emotional" pop long; off of the road show'; but the technicals will direct my trading of FGI. Sadly; the "technicals" should have been directing virtually everyone's trading of FGI of late... it would have saved individual investors a small fortune . Bottomline: JL has to show the street the money (new orders) & the Quarterly numbers post merger supporting new investment. Untill then; FGI's a "pop" play and potentially deadmoney once again directly into the face of another upward leg toward Boom 2000 for the rest of the Patch... Imho; "the rest of the Patch" is where one's money belongs... not FGI.