Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (89337)	10/3/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: Jacques Newey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Tenchusatsu- Re" <this is about religious conviction it is about objective analysis.>" I'll let brother Carl speak to the religious conviction aspect. In regards to "objective analysis". To me the Barron's article seemed a bit one-sided (overly negative). The posts on this thread also often seem to be one-sided (overly positive). Funny how opinions with respect to Intel's future generally fall on extreme opposite ends of the spectrum. It sure makes for some very interesting reading on this thread! As with most complex issues, perhaps the truth lies somewhere on the vast expanse between the two extremes. Let's be honest. Intel is not a perfect company. They have stumbled more than a few times over the past several years. In most cases they have picked themselves up and kept on running to win the race. Perhaps the most significant of the recent stumbles occurred after being "slapped up side the head" by the cheap PC phenomenon. They either ignored it or guessed wrong. Quite possibly they didn't want to believe it because they didn't like the implications for their business. If the latter is true, I hope they have learned an important lesson. As my father once told me: "Things doesn't always happen the way we want them to." Intel appears to have recovered from their oversight, but the fact that it happened shows they are not invincible. A feeling of invincibility can be a potentially dangerous thing. I get the opinion sometimes reading on this thread that Intel is invincible. They are not. As the company begins to grow and extend their tentacles into new areas of businesses, the potential for screw-ups increases exponentially (Newey's Law:). I hope Intel management do not get so overconfident that the company falters significantly. If this happens, we as shareholders will lose. Diversification if not executed properly can have disastrous long term effects to company performance. Peter Lynch called it "diworsification". Despite the fact that I have a high degree of confidence in Intel's management, I worry at times that Intel may suffer from "diworsification" in the future. In other words I am paranoid. Andy Grove in his book "Only The Paranoid Survive" said that management can not keep their heads stuck in the sand, oblivious to internal weakness. Even more dangerous are the external market forces that are too subtle too detect until it's too late (paraphrasing very loosely). Denial is an early sign of trouble. Intel's management need to be ever vigilant. They will need to execute with near perfect execution. I'm not saying they haven't been. I'm saying they need to be even more careful and alert as they begin to juggle a greater number of balls. The new balls will be changing in shape and size. It won't be easy. Some of the balls may be dropped intentionally. Let's hope that none are dropped unintentionally (ouch). My point is that future success should not be taken for granted. The "juggling" is only going to get more difficult. Let's face it, some of the threats in the Barron's article are real. However, I suspect that there are far greater and much more serious threats lurking out there that no one knows about yet. I hope that Intel can see these and address them early enough so that they are not blind-sided. I'd like to see more discussion on this thread about the real threats that Intel faces, particularly in the new businesses they are venturing into. Let's also try and be objective in our discussions. After all, "only the paranoid survive"! Still very long Intel and enjoying being a part of this thread.