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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (4550)	10/3/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

I have to address the other possibility, however remote I believe it is, that the correction from the July high ended last Monday. Firstly I will restate that the bulk of the current evidence I have does not support a new leg up. The overlap on the Jan high puts the lid on that from the EW point of view ; The ST formation from last Monday's low doesn't look bullish , and the market leader - the NDX - after making a pole on Balmer's comments on the 23rd, formed a pennant that was broken down Friday morning. Yes it did rebound a lot in the last hour and a half last Friday, maybe even a bit too much to remain bearish, but in my eye the formation is still intact. After reassuring those who still read me that my stance remain the same, I can now criticize it by way of looking for support to the bullish scenario. 1. Up on Monday - If the market, and especially the NDX, rises on Monday then a few bullish signals will ignite - The SPX will finally rise from 1280 and the support will hold once more - The pennant on the NDX will be nulled - The ST MAs will start moving higher and will make the action since 9/24 look like bottoming action. - My opinion is that Monday will be down, and if it is up then my assumptions were wrong and therefore I should switch at least my ST view. 2. Overcoming resistance lines - If Monday is up then there are two flat resistance levels that coincide with other technical lines and make TA focal points. First resistance is at SPX 1304 and the second and stronger one is at SPX 1318. So if Moday is up my immediate target is 1304 on Tuesday, and if that one is taken then the 1316-1318 level should bring solid resistance. If the SPX takes out 1318 as well (and the NDX overtakes 2480) then I will have to accept a more bullish view, maybe even calling for a new high. I will state again that my current target for the SPX is at least 1140, and that there is overwhelming evidence in favor of a severe bear market targeting 900 in December. They include P/C ratio, the Pitbull crash indicator, mf cash levels, The weak Dollar (against everything- Yen, Gold, Oil, and now even the Euro), and Balmer's comments may have been the trigger. But if i'm right then Monday is should be down significantly, and if it's up then I have to look at the less bearish possibilities as well. ATG