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Strategies & Market Trends : TradersChoice 2000 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (332)	10/3/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 604

This is in my opinion quite important news, $ weakness would not be good for the markets!! One needs to keep a very careful watch on Japanese and European economies..... Yen Seen Rising Next Week; BOJ Report Likely to Spark Optimism10/1/99 17:21 Yen Seen Rising Next Week; BOJ Report Likely to Spark Optimism New York, Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen is likely to gain against the dollar next week as the Bank of Japan's `Tankan' survey of business confidence out Monday is expected to bolster the view the world's second-largest economy is rebounding. Traders cited growing confidence the yen will resume a strengthening trend that propelled it to a 44-month high against the dollar in mid-September. The BOJ's reluctance to expand the money supply as a way to depress the yen's price, a step the government has been urging in recent days, is underscoring the view the currency has more room to rise. ``The feeling is the Tankan report may come in strong, and I see further (yen) strengthening as we haven't seen any moves on the part of the BOJ' to restrain the currency, said Ivonne Nadel, a trader at Israel Discount Bank. The yen rose to 104.65 per dollar from 106.46 yesterday, a 1.7 percent climb. That's the yen's strongest day in three weeks. Against the euro, it had its best day in a week and a half, rising 0.8 percent to 112.725 from 113.655. Even with today's gains, the yen fell 0.9 percent this week against the dollar and 3.1 percent against the euro, as speculation swirled at the start of the week that the BOJ would succumb to pressure and loosen monetary policy. The central bank's quarterly survey of business sentiment is likely to show confidence among large Japanese manufacturers at a 21-month high, according to a Bloomberg News survey. A good Tankan could spur another wave of international investment in Japanese stocks, boosting demand for yen, analystssaid. ``Expectations are that (the survey) is going to be a marked improvement and probably the yen will work its way up to 100 (yen per dollar),' said James Culnane, senior trader at Norddeutsche Landesbank. That would bring the currency to its strongest level against the dollar since the end of 1995. Momentum ``The dollar's downside momentum is quite strong,' said Ku Shin, director of Asian analysis at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago. Shin added he expects the yen to climb above the 104 level in coming days. On Sept. 15, the yen rose as high as 103.20 per dollar, its strongest level since January 1996. The yen has gained about 8 percent against the dollar and 17.6 percent against the euro since the start of the year. Japanese officials worry the currency's strength could hurt exporters' earnings and slow the nation's economic recovery. Foreign investors have been net purchasers of Japanese stocks for 34 of the last 36 weeks, according to figures from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. That flow of capital into Japan could pick up more steam if weakness in U.S. stocks and bonds continues and investors become persuaded to sell their U.S. financial assets, analysts said. Both stocks and bonds dropped today, hurting the dollar as well, as a stronger-than-expected manufacturing report fanned speculation the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. Fed policy-makers meet on Tuesday. While higher rates could boost the appeal of dollar deposits, that is outweighed by concern interest-rate fears will lead international investors to shift funds out of U.S. assets,traders said. Euro Strength Heading into next week, the euro may extend its gains against the dollar, some traders said. The euro rose to a seven- week high as comments from European Central Bank officials sparked speculation the bank will lift interest rates soon. ECB chief economist Otmar Issing and Wim Duisenberg, the bank's president, both remarked on increasing inflationary pressure in separate speeches today, sparking euro buying. Higher interest rates would boost the euro by making deposits in the currency more attractive. ``The market is getting warning signs there is potential that (ECB) rates will be hiked in the next few months,' said Per Norr, a trader at Den norske Bank. ``The euro will stay bid.' The euro rose to $1.0725, from $1.0684 yesterday. It earlier climbed as high as $1.0767, its strongest level since Aug. 10. Ten-year U.S. Treasury notes currently yield 80 basis points more than similar German government debt, a gap that's 39 basis points narrower than the average so far this year. The slimmer the spread between those yields, the more attractive euro deposits become to investors. In Europe, Issing said ``inflation risks were pointing to the downside but have, since May, been on the upside.' The bank cut its borrowing costs by 50 basis points in April amid evidence of tame prices and lackluster growth.

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (332)	10/3/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 604

Jeff, You may want to consider QQQ puts as a hedge as well. Less premium and tighter spread. If broad market supports break, I have a hard time believing that the NDX won't at least test its supports. Support for NDX on Point and Figure is 2120-2130, and Support for QQQ is around 106, I think QQQ will at least test 110. I have been buying and trading December puts as my hedge, but will probably start going out to January to protect premiums. Best wishes, David