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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (79447)	10/3/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: Robert Brooks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Eric, I heard him on TV say this (75 % decline in many inets) during the last decline of the internets. Conversely when bottoms were reached, he came out and upgraded several of the larger inets which fueled this last run. Now he's swinging the other direction. If this has a marked impact on the inets, there is no doubt that as soon as he plays the short side long enough, he will come out with more buy recos. He's going to have to be more creative though. JMO RB

To: Eric Wells who wrote (79447)	10/3/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: dbblg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Do you know for certain that he has expressed such caution in the past? No. As I tried to make clear, I don't follow many of the sell-side analysts very closely at all. I do recall hearing him mention that he thought inet investments were only suitable for a small portion of even aggressive investors' portfolios. >>Blodget has changed his schpeel to a more cautious tone. Agree. One of the things on my checklist for upping my inet investments is increasing caution from the sellside cheerleaders. I don't think we're there yet, but this is part of that process. >> I think if he had used the above words in any past pronouncements on the value of internet stocks, we might not have experienced such exhuberance on the run-up of the i-nets (or Blodget wouldn't be as popular as he is now). Over the past couple of years, a series of non-events, such as price-target increases from analysts and stock splits, caused exuberant run-ups, as did announcements such as AMZN's entry into music and gift sales, which by all rights should already have been factored into the price. I believe that these run-ups merely reflected the huge short positions in the stocks, and the enormous power that conferred to the momentum funds who have had a LOT of fun with technology stocks in this decade. Any excuse was good enough to stick it to the shorts. (Others, such as KIS, believe the run-ups are evidence that longs in inets are all naive idiots and/or lambs being led to the slaughter by sell-side analysts. Both phenomena probably coexisted, though I tend not to place too much credence in any theory which assumes that the traders making money in the market aren't as smart as the traders who are losing it.)