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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (41896)	10/3/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

yes I meant the Japanese would eventually get it going. For the most part I'm not aware of any specific anomalies in most government statistics. The problem with the savings rate is pretty well known and has been published in a number of places. My suspicion is that most single item stats are pretty reliable at least for determining relative growth rates. Your comment about Laslo Biryni using raw data strikes me as a pretty good idea, eliminate seasonal adjustments and other 'corrections'. I don't know what he is currently projecting but would be interested. As far as my own view I suspect the 'average' household is not in particularly bad shape right now. As I said earlier I believe the savings rate is closer to trend so the average household is still saving, afterall someone is responsible for the net inflows from the personal sector into the stock and bond markets. Unemployment rates are pretty low and appear to be drawing some people into the work force that had previously been part of the long term unemployed. This doesn't mean that a rise in rates would cause an increase in bankruptcies. With greater use of adjustable mortgages and floating rate consummer debts, rate rises will feed through quicker than in the past. I agree that companies are likely to continue to have difficulty passing along price increases. One of the reasons I believe inflation will be somewhat restrained, at least in the near term. Despite this I think we need further rate tightness. Largely to keep asset inflation in check but also because there are sectors of the economy that remain very tight. I've been waiting three months to get a carpenter to replace a damaged window frame :) Henry