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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (48891)	10/3/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

larry, even in the best possible reasonable scenario, mu is only worth about $30. maybe $15 - $20 given a probable scenario. so, who's more bearish? ;-) btw, you know cycle man wasn't short for the ride down. he has paradigm paralysis. he interprets things, after the fact, to prove a preconceived notion.

To: TREND1 who wrote (48891)	10/3/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 53903

Random replies: Larry, it's not possible, by definition, to be more bearish than Skeeter. :-) "one billion internet users"? "Dataguess" must be smacking its palm on its head for not being the first to come up with the 1B figure. Outlandish by a factor of ten, no doubt, until they explain the economic scenar^H^H^H^H^H^H circumstances that would allow 10% of all Chinese, Indian, and African peasants to go on-line with 30% of the rest of the world. (What year is this supposed to be true?) I'm expecting a tight range for Monday and even Tuesday, regardless of earnings, until the FOMC meeting results (to be announced at the usual time of 2:15 E / 11:15 P) are factored in. (MU traded entirely on its own Friday morning, and entirely with the rest of the market Friday afternoon.) The change in MU's price a half-hour after that announcement (allowing for post-FOMC jacking around) will tell us its trend for the forseeable future, IMO. MU stock price is busted, IMO. You just don't break through such a carefully constructed V-bottom of last Thursday (72 1/4 I believe) in such an explosion of selling as we saw unless the game is over. There has never been a period of non-stop ten percent whipsawing in the history of Micron Technology as we saw in September. Tens of millions of shares were transferred in this period. After the inevitable break out of a whipsaw range like that, one side is proven to be correct, and is counting its money and laughing its ass off. The other side, the side that finally was overwhelmed, the side that gave everything it had, is now totally annihilated. (That side, IMO, is composed of those who bought at a four-year top, over and over and over.) I'm still short from Friday at 70 1/2 and will be going home short for the forseeable future. IMO, any "surprise" opening gaps will be to the downside. (Who's going to tout this thing after earnings?) I have some free upcrash calls in place (buy price, strike price, and month are classified -- I announce some trades as a courtesy but feel no obligation to crystallize any of my many "best guesses" that turn out to be real boners in the "permenance" of the SI thread) but will be laughing my ass off at their expiration whether they expire worthless or not. MU earnings are emphatically not a factor in MU's stock price. Totally random. Upside surprises? Random. Downside surprises? Random. Losses? Random. Profits? Random. As a trend reverser or continuation? Random. Increases? Random. Decreases? Random. Proof is, as they say, left as an exercise for the reader, with bigcharts.com as a starting point.