Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Hunt who wrote (9787)	10/3/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: Bindusagar Reddy	Respond to of 21876

Here are details of the report. Price target $100.00 50x Y2001 EPS of 2.00 6:07am EDT 1-Oct-99 PaineWebber (Piecyk, Walter P. 212-713-4075) LU LU.N Lucent: Posts $2.5 Billion of Orders In September Telecom equipment; Wireless Services PaineWebber Walter Piecyk RESEARCH NOTE 212-713-4075/piecykw@painewebber.com William Choi, Analyst (212-713-2609) October 1, 1999 Lucent Technologies Rating: Buy (LU-$64.94)(3) Lucent: Posts $2.5 Billion of Orders In September KEY POINTS * Lucent had a very strong September announcing over $2.5 billion of contracts. * $1.5 billion of the contracts were to wireless operators with the majority of the balance for optical products. * Strength in its business with operators continues to drive results. We expect 25% growth in this segment in Q4. We believe Lucent is on track for posting over $10 billion in revenue and $0.29 in EPS in Fiscal Q4. * Over the next month we expect several events to drive Lucent's stock including: * Strong fiscal Q4 results with balance sheet improvements. * Product and contract announcements at Telecom 99 Trade Show in Geneva during the week of October 11th. * Product announcements and bullish outlook at Lucent Investor Day on November 11th. * Increased capital spending plans by major operators (See Capital Creep notes). * Price target of $100 implies 50x our 2001 EPS estimate of $2.00. Key Data Quarterly Earnings Per Share (fiscal year ends September) 52-Wk Range $78-29 1998A 1999E Prev 2000E Prev Eq.Mkt.Cap.(MM) $198,976 1Q $0.39 $0.49A $0.54 Sh.Out.(MM) 3,064 2Q 0.09 0.17A 0.25 Float 85% 3Q 0.17 0.26A 0.34 Inst.Hldgs. 42.8% 4Q 0.21 0.29E 0.37 Av.Dly.Vol.(K) 10,090 Year $0.86 $1.21 $1.50 Curr. Div./Yield $0.08/0.1% FC Cons.: NA $1.20 $1.51 Sec.Grwth.Rate 20% Revs.(MM): $31,806 $38,162 $45,111 12-mo. Tgt Price $100.00 P/E: 75.5x 53.7x 43.3x 12-mo. Ret. Pot'l 54.1% Convertible? No Contractor Country Description Amount (millions) MediaOne USA 5ESS digital switches and SONET $250 systems; communications software Chunghwa Telecom Taiwan SDH transmission $40 equipment-Self-healing fiber rings and Wavestar DACS Celcom Malaysia Arbor/BP billing software and customer undisclosed care module T-Mobil Germany GSM Network upgrade for GPRS-no $250 products specified Konka Group China Sceptre GSM chip set for wireless undisclosed handsets Leap Wireless USA CDMA network equipment, base stations, $330 switches; Netcare support services Telecorp PCS USA Echo canceller and Voice Enhancement undisclosed System Bank One/AT&T USA DEFINITY entreprise-comm. Server and $79 Centrevu call mgmt system Adornis.com USA Centrevu internet customer $10 relationship mgmt products, services, software Telus Canada Voice, Internet, and High-speed data $140 network-with 5ESS switches, etc. Telesp Celular Brazil CDMA overlay for analog system-5ESS $14 switches, Autoplex minicells Vesper Brazil WLL-Flexent PCS minicells, MSC's w/ $470 5ESS, Netcare svcs, Galaxy Power sys. Beijing Telecom China GSM platform for handsets based on undisclosed Equip. Factory Sceptre chips France Telecom France Arbor/BP billing software undisclosed Metromedia Fiber Europe/US Deployment of Allwave(for cities) $40 Networks fiber for intracity network routes Florida East Coast USA Truewave RS High-count optical fiber, $270 Industries Netcare services and consulting combined Columbia Energy USA Truewave RS High-count optical fiber Group WIN switching USA Converged telecom nwk-Pathstar Access $50 Server, 7R/E Packet Driver, 5ESS swch Cavalier Telephone USA Internet call waiting software undisclosed Kaiser Permanente USA DEFINITY entreprise-comm. server, undisclosed Centrevu call mgmt sys, Netcare services Bellsouth Wireless USA Arbor/Mobile billing, customer care $180 Data and analysis, and order management product One.Tel Australia GSM network construction $281 IFX Corp. USA MAX 6000 and TNT WAN access switches $10 to expand dial-access services Total $2,415 Millions

To: William Hunt who wrote (9787)	10/3/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: Bindusagar Reddy	Respond to of 21876

If you look at the details of the 2.5 billion new deals. Nearly 50% approx. 1 billion dollar contracts are outside the US. This is an indication that LU will have 60-65% revenues from outside US in 21 st century. International revenues will grow 30-50% annually over the next several years. Key reason is that they can provide every kind of communication solution with LUCENT reliablity. If this is not transparent to idiots like Olsten, I don't know what visibility means? Regards BR

To: William Hunt who wrote (9787)	10/3/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: Bindusagar Reddy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Here are the top 10 Holdings of this Olsten idiots Portfolio Top Equity Holdings (%) RDB Reader's Digest Association Inc 2.71 ( A piece of the history) OXHP Oxford Health Plans Inc 2.27 ( A fraud in HMOs, a declining industry) SDC Santa Fe International Corp 2.00 ( A piece of 19 th century industry) AMR AMR Corp 1.97 (Value with little or no growth, worst service of all airlines) RBK Reebok International Ltd 1.71 ( A second grade Shoe junk company) BCC Boise Cascade Corp 1.60 (Another junk stock) DLGC Dialogic 1.57 AKS AK Steel Holding Corp 1.53 ( 18 the century industry, commodity) 0AH13 Tele-Comm TCI Grp Cl A 1.39 ( Not so bad) SDW Southdown, Inc 1.38 This gives you an idea about this Moron's picks. Piece of work. I will not contribute a dime to this portfolio. BR