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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7413)10/3/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: JohnG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike Buckley. We discussed CREE and SiC and Siemens a few months back. Do you know whether CREE's current head start(s)are protected by IP. IP provides the protection a small tech company needs if it is to have a chance to grow into a major force.

Looking around, I don't see anything close to having Q's potential. RMBS is on the back burner. GMST seems awfully costly, but, I don't feel qualifies to value it. CTXS is cheap, but so confusing I wonder if investors will ever feel secure with a vision that it will show sustained large scale growth. JDSU is becoming very highly valued. MEDI, RFMD,and NTAP seem to have had their run. There are CSCO and MSFT with life left.

But what technology is it that can both be locked up and result is many years of hi rate growth. Could CREE possibly hold IPR to lock up technology which will be key to a future course unavoidable if progress continuse.

I guess I come back to looking at CTXS, GMST, and possibly CREE as compared to my present 90+% Q. Perhaps KISS and stick w/ Q is the best choice after all.

Mike, which of these are your leading contenders?
JohnG



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7413)10/3/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: JohnG  Respond to of 54805
 
M Buckley. Interesting earlier CREE thread article.
JohnG

To: Walter Jacquemin who wrote (1057)
From: Michael Happel
Wednesday, Jun 16 1999 9:44AM ET
Reply # of 1097

The Race For The Blue Laser Market Is Far From Over Says New Report From
Technical Insights' Futuretech

ENGLEWOOD, N.J., June 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Two years after Shuji Nakamura of
Nichia Chemical Industries, Japan, demonstrated the first continuous wave (CW) blue
laser diode with a significant lifetime, the field is still wide open, says a new Futuretech
report, Is the Race for the Blue Laser Over?, from Technical Insights, a unit of Johns
Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Nichia began commercial sampling of semiconductor blue lasers earlier this year. The
device is actually a violet laser that boasts continuous wave (CW) emission for over
10,000 hours sells for $2000 each. The best any other research group has yet done is
a Northwestern University group that reports 140 hours CW lifetime. However,
Nichia is far from cornering the blue laser market.

Cree Research Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., SDL Inc., Xerox Corp., Northwestern
University, the University of California-Santa Barbara, Boston University, and North
Carolina State University all have active blue laser programs and are receiving money
from one very interested third party: The US defense establishment has ponied up
millions of dollars in funding from DARPA and the Ballistic Missile Defense
Organization (BMDO). The US Navy's Office of Naval Research has been funding
the most successful academic research group, Manijeh Razeghi's group at
Northwestern, primarily because blue laser light can propagate underwater without
refraction, enabling inter-ship communication. Japanese companies such as Fujitsu and
Matsushita are also pouring money into blue laser R&D.

The result will be a multitude of blue laser devices for applications as diverse as
ultra-high resolution laser printers, indoor lighting and next-generation 15 Gbyte
DVDs, and an overall blue laser market that will reach billions of dollars within the next
five years.

Is the Race for the Blue Laser Over? features a detailed overview of competing blue
laser technologies and how they work. It includes an assessment of the likely
commercial impact of these systems in various industrial sectors. Like all of the
Futuretech series, this report details funding, development, and licensing opportunities,
and lists key patents. Readers get full contact information, including names, mail and
e-mail addresses, phone and fax numbers of key developers.

SOURCE John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

CO: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

ST: New Jersey



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7413)10/3/1999 10:53:00 PM
From: JohnG  Respond to of 54805
 
M Buckley. I wonder if they are thinking of replacing the common every day light bulb. And does CREE have patent protection.
JohnG

To: Obewon who wrote (1048)
From: Walter Jacquemin
Friday, Jun 4 1999 12:59PM ET
Reply # of 1097

Obewon, I cannot be sure, but 1)GE owns a big chunk of Cree. 2) To make solid
state white light, you need blue. Cree makes the brightest blue for the least cost. 3)
Cree's blue diodes are oriented vertically, which is the industry standard. If you want
to know for sure, E-mail Cree and ask. wj



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7413)10/3/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: JohnG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
M Buckley. Quick review of blue laser importance fro Forbes.
JohnG

After four decades of struggle, laser
research is on the brink of a major
breakthrough.

Into the blue

By Rita Koselka

SCIENTISTS IN THE ethereal world of laser
research have spent decades in pursuit of a
seemingly simple innovation: the color blue.
It has been a lot harder than it looks?and
now they are closer to achieving it than
ever before.

Within two years the blue laser could go
commercial, and it holds huge
promise?digital disks that store four times
as much data as current ones; lightbulbs
that cut energy use and last a decade;
cheap desktop printers that rival magazine
quality; new medical instruments with
unheard-of precision; billboard-sized video
screens with incredible clarity.

The pivotal breakthrough in this blue quest
came in December, when Nichia Chemical
Industries of Japan announced that it had
built the first continuous blue laser, capable
of zapping an unblinking beam of amplified
blue light. Previous advances had been able
to muster only intermittent pulses of the
elusive laser.

"It's a big deal to jump from having a laser
that worked for less than a minute to one
for over an hour. From here, we won't need
another set of heroic efforts," says Noble
Johnson, a laser jock at Xerox Corp.'s Palo
Alto Research Center.

Xerox and such titans as Sony, Fujitsu and
Hewlett-Packard are working on blue lasers.
Out in front of them, however, are Nichia
and a small U.S. firm, Cree Research of
Durham, N.C.Both hope to parlay their
blue-laser breakthroughs into a shot at the
big time.

Why blue lasers stir so much excitement
owes to physics and geometry. The
wavelength of blue light is only half as long
as that of the red laser and infrared laser,
which are commonly used in compact-disc
players, DVD players and other gadgets.
Half the size means that twice as many
microscopic waves?which represent the
"on" and "off" signals of digital computer
code?can be crammed into the same
space. And on a flat, two-dimensional
plane, a twofold increase in waves yields a
fourfold rise in storage or instructions. That
means more power.

Much of the progress owes to Nichia's Shuji
Nakamura, who has spent over 20 years
pursuing the elusive band of blue. Nichia,
based in remote Tokushima, Japan, had
$400 million in sales last year. It has spent
more than $100 million on related research
over the years?even as far bigger
entrants, such as IBM and 3M, dropped out
of the race.

"From here, we won't need
another set of heroic efforts."

Cree Research was founded in 1987 by two
brothers, engineers Neal and Eric Hunter,
and four scientists from North Carolina
State University. Cree went public in 1993
and also turned to partners and military
contracts to raise money for its research. It
just licensed its work for $2.6 million to
Seattle-based Microvision, which hopes to
produce blue-laser screens.

Lasers have many uses, from storing and
reading data on discs to monitors, printers
and lighting. DVD discs now hold 4.7 billion
bytes of data; blue-laser DVDs will hold
more than 20 billion. The market for
blue-related products could develop much
more rapidly than it did for earlier efforts,
says Robert Steele of research firm
Strategies Unlimited in Mountain View, Calif.

Compact discs, which use infrared lasers,
are now 15 years into their life cycle. Their
successor, DVDs, which use red lasers,
"won't last that long" before being
supplanted by blue-laser disks, he says.
"DVDs will start tapering in the next few
years." He says blue-laser products could
hit the $2 billion mark by 2006, plus $1
billion for blue and green LEDs.

Cree Research has become a world leader in
blue LEDs, which are light-emitting diodes,
less concentrated than lasers and used as
the light source in backlit car dashboards
and cell phones. All Volkswagen dashboards
are backlit by Cree LEDs.

Cree and Nichia use different materials to
form their blue lasers. Nichia uses sapphire,
and Cree deploys silicon carbide. Silicon
carbide, a crystal grown in a lab at
temperatures of 2,000 degrees Celsius, is
the better platform but is expensive.

Cree is the world's largest producer of the
material. Nearly half of the $60 million in
sales it will bring in this year will come from
selling silicon-carbide wafers, the other half
from LEDs.

"It would make our lives much easier if we
could get silicon carbide cheaper," says
Waguih Ishak, an optics research director
at Hewlett-Packard's lab. Ishak and
scientists at Xerox and most other
companies use sapphire to create their blue
lasers, but sapphire isn't nearly as good a
material.

"Gee-whiz advances don't
matter if they don't come at
the right price."

A quick science lesson shows why. Laser is
an acronym for Light Amplification by
Stimulated Emission of Radiation. Lasers are
beams of light in which all of the photons
pulse at the same wavelength, at the same
exact time. They were first developed in
gas tubes and other large apparatus, but to
be commercially useful they had to be small
and less fragile?solid state. Solid-state
lasers are made by running a current
through a material?gallium nitride?whose
electrons' energy level matches the
wavelength of light desired. When a charge
is zapped through the material, its electrons
jump, creating a photon that is then
amplified by natural, microscopic mirrors in
the material layered on top of it, silicon
carbide or sapphire. Silicon carbide's natural
cleave points are ideal mirrors.

Sapphire, the material Nichia and most
other laser developers use, is cheaper and
easier to come by but more difficult to
process correctly to provide the necessary
mirrors.

Nichia is now making test quantities of
commercial blue lasers that sell for about
$2,000. Rivals agree that the laser won't
thrive until it can be had for around $10.
That's a steep cost reduction curve.

Nichia and others are currently having
difficulty getting the yields high enough in
the production of sapphire crystals to get
the costs down. Xerox PARC has recently
demonstrated a laser of Nichia's quality.
"We've got people excitedly working on the
other subsystems to make a printing
system," says PARC's Noble Johnson.

Cree, on the other hand, is already the
low-cost producer of LEDs from its
silicon-carbide process. "It took us three
years to get our costs down and yields up,"
says Cree Chief Executive Neal Hunter. Its
blue LEDs sell for five to ten cents apiece
compared with one to three cents for red
LEDs.

But Cree has been slower at getting blue
lasers to run as long as Nichia's and at room
temperature. The company is unlikely to
lower the cost of its silicon-carbide wafers
until its own lasers can match the
performance of the sapphire-based laser of
Nichia. "Gee-whiz technical announcements
don't count for anything until you have a
product at the right price point," Cree's
Hunter says.

Wall Street has bid Cree's stock up to $58
from $12 in September. Earnings in the past
year were $10.6 million, giving the stock a
price-to-earnings multiple of 76.

Both Nichia and Cree say they have no
doubt they can conquer the obstacles by
steady scientific slogging in the next two
years. "This is the holy grail of
opto-electronics," says HP's Ishak. "It's
been a marathon and we're not finished, but
we'll make it."



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7413)10/4/1999 2:20:00 AM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
<<Because all of that has preceded the defining event, I have to wonder what will happen with [GMST] stock once the event has come to being. I really wonder if this isn't going to be yet another classic case of buying on the rumor and selling on the news.... The influence a defining event has on the price of a stock has a lot to do with the degree to which it is anticipated. In Qualcomm's case, I think the defining event was anticipated by relatively few investors. In Gemstar's case, the perception is more important than the fundamental of a positive settlement. That suggests to me that most of the investors already anticipate it.>>

Interesting point, BUT--I submit that the direction of the movement will depend on whether the number of "old" GMST investors acting as you predict is greater or less than the number of "new" GMST investors drawn to the stock by the stories regarding the settlement. We sometimes tend to forget that the vast majority of investors out there have no clue at all about most of these obscure tech companies, and that the further increases in their stock prices will come at least as much from their getting "known" as from anything else.

For example, only incredibly sophisticated types knew about QCOM pre-3/99. Sophisticated types learned about it during the course of the year. And unsophisticated types will learn about it in years to come. GMST is probably as obscure now as QCOM was nine months ago, so it should be able to count on lots of new blood coming in....

<<if I were trying to time Gemstar (which I'm not) I would probably wait for what I think will be a sell-off that takes place after the defining event.>>

I'm far less experienced at investing than most of you and therefore should not opine on such subjects, but if one wanted to get in yet thought a sell-off was possible, wouldn't the logical thing to do be to dollar-cost-average your purchase half before and half after the announcement?

tekboy@greed.com