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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (28328)	10/4/1999 10:00:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the Market News weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. -- Leading Indicator for August (percent change) Tuesday, October 5 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Lead Index -0.1% -0.2% to +0.3% 19 -- +0.3% +0.3% Comments: Leading indicators are expected to fall 0.1% in August after three consecutive 0.3% gains. Stock prices, which have been supporting the index all year, took a tumble in August. Money supply continues to add to the index, and the workweek was extended further in August. Durable goods orders were also up strongly in August, but were softer than in July. -- Factory Orders for August (percent change) Wednesday, October 6 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Mfg Orders +0.7% +0.3% to +1.1% 22 -- +2.1% +0.8% Comments: Factory orders are expected to be up 0.7% in August, on an already announced 0.9% rise in durable goods orders. The durables rise was attributable to higher transportation prices and nondefense capital goods. Nondurables are expected to post a modest rise. -- Jobless Claims for week ended October 2 (change/level in thousands) Thursday, September 23 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Oct02 Sep25 Sep18 New Claims +1/300 -19/280 to +9/308 10 -- +25/299 -14/274 Comments: Claims are expected to rise 1,000 to 300,000 in the October 2 week, settling down after fluctuations in the previous two weeks due to Hurricane Floyd in the East. -- Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions) Thursday, October 7 at 3:00 p.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Cons Credit +$7.0b +$4.2b to +$12.0b 17 -- +$8.8b +$3.3b Comment: Consumer credit is expected to be up $7.0 billion in August, softer than in July, but still showing strength in consumer spending. Revolving credit jumped $5.9 billion in July, but likely softened in August as consumer confidence continues to moderate and interest rates are on the rise. -- Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands) Friday, October 8 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99 Payrolls +220K +140k to +275k 22 -- +124k +338k Jobless Rate 4.2% 4.1% to 4.3% 22 -- 4.2% 4.3% Mfg Payrolls -10k -20k to unch 7 -- -63k +51k Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.2 to 34.6 13 -- 34.6 34.5 Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 19 -- +0.2% +0.3% Comments: Payrolls are expected to rise 220,000 in the September report after a softer-than-expected reading in August. Service sector payrolls should move higher, and the new school year brings back government employees, though seasonal factors will account will offset some of the gain. The manufacturing sector is expected to fall 10,000 in September, showing continued difficulties in the sector. Hurricane Floyd hit the east coast in the September survey week, likely having some effect on hours worked, but little effect on payrolls. The workweek is expected to fall to 34.4 hours due to Floyd, with hourly earnings up 0.3%, showing some wage inflation. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. -- Retail Sales for September (percent change) Thursday, October 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99 Retail Sales +0.2% -0.3% to +1.0% 8 -- +1.2% +1.0% Ex-Autos +0.3% +0.2% to +0.7% 7 -- +0.7% +0.4% Comments: Early forecasts for retail sales suggest that consumption continued strong, but softer, in September. Consumer confidence fell in September, though must of that decline was in future expectations. The auto sector continues to provide some zip to retail sales, though the pace of sales may be softer than the 2.5% jump in August. Gasoline service sales, however, are expected to remain strong as long as energy prices remain relatively high. -- Producer Price Index for September (percent change) Friday, October 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99 PPI +0.5% +0.2% to +0.6% 8 -- +0.5% +0.2% PPI Core +0.4% UNCH to +0.8% 7 -- -0.1% UNCH Comments: Early forecasts for September PPI point to a 0.5% rise, same as in August, and due again to energy prices. The energy component is expected to remain relatively high, though at a tamer pace than August's 3.7% jump. Food prices rose 0.4% in August due to a drought, but hurricanes in September alleviated this condition and USDA farm prices fell 1.0% from August. Outside of food and energy, computer and car prices likely recovered from previous declines, adding to gains in other components, particularly tobacco. Core PPI is expected to rise 0.4% after a 0.1% decline in August. Analysts will also watch pipeline measures after large gains in August. -- Industrial Production for September (percent change) Friday, October 15 at 9:15 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99 Ind Prod +0.2% UNCH to +0.3% 7 -- +0.3% +0.7% Cap Util 80.7% 80.6% to 80.9% 7 -- 80.8% 80.7% Comments: Industrial production is expected to be up 0.2% in September, early forecasts show, as auto and truck production softened from a 12.8% August jump, but remain strong. In addition, Hurricane Floyd had some negative effect on factory production in the East, while utilities softened from August. Capacity utilization is expected to fall to 80.7% in September. economeister.com Also: BOJ TANKAN SURVEY economeister.com US TSY MKT BETTER BID; MUTED REACTION TO TANKAN; AWAIT FOMC economeister.com