To: Ruffian who wrote (43196 ) 10/4/1999 11:09:00 PM From: quidditch Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
Does anyone get the feeling based on Q's sideway movement lately, that an acquisition is on the very near horizon?...Candidates; 1. Prairie Comm? 2. DSP.? < my choice> I think they will re-license Philips/VLSI, for the seeding of Europe. Ruffian and Dave (whose reply to the witless response to Ruffian's post re. add'l manufacturing capacity was on the mark): 1. Agree that sideways movement reflects Street waiting for shoes to drop. 2. $1.4 billion in the till, plus some more (modestly) coming from handset division sale, earning T-bill rates is not going to impress the Street. 3. Don't agree on DSP as candidate, even though it is a well managed, agile company, for following reasons: -Q is fabless: why take a fab oriented company which Q historically has no experience--would DSP give Q the capacity and expertise of IBM and INTC for ASIC manufacture? Would the upside on the margins be worth the manufacturing headaches (headaches Q is very anxious to exit)? -To me, this would create more uncertainty in the ever-evolving Q story, exiting handset but entering the ASIC manufacturing biz? I would see the Street seeing it as a negative. -DSP generates royalties. Buying DSP would run counter to Dr. J's investment thesis of letting a hundred CDMA flowers bloom. 100% margin in a tradeoff for taking DSP in house and now you have to calculate all the gross and operating margins and SG&A all over again. -Does it send a message that Q can't make an ASIC to compete with its licensees? -I think the acquisition has to be more in a big picture context of wireless data and leveraging CDMA technology. ASICs are one part of that, true, but Q has that segment more or less under control (which is not to say it won't become increasingly competitive). I don't know if it's a fixed wireless play/a gambit or JV with LU in broadening the pipe, or accelerating HDR in some way. Just my two pesos, for what they're worth (tequila is cheap and plentiful). Best. Steve. PS Our chocolate lab James woofs to Ruffian. James has not a watchdog bone in his body. Big galoot comes to the door this evening, has the wrong address. James is nudging me with his nose from behind to see who it is.....