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Technology Stocks : General Magic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MattB who wrote (7019)	10/5/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10081

Matt...FWIW I can empathize with you here, but there seem to be some interesting dynamics going on . I'm only guessing, but I think we are paying the price here from convertible financing issues and a reasonably heavy short interest. nasdaq-amex.com Considering the fall in price yesterday through the bottom bollinger band on a 20 period chart, on rising volume and falling on balance volume I would say we are faced with a case of capitulation selling. Retail wants out, they are scared and disgusted. No news, everything is deathly quiet. Either the company is going under, or insiders are converting shares at the lowest possible price, and professionals are loading the coffers for distribution at much higher volumes and prices. I don't think the company is going under, not here, not now. I think the lack of news is compelling, and at this stage of development almost unprecedented for any company in a situation like this. I can only guess, but I feel something must be in the wings to warrant this type of action. I've included a couple links here to illustrate my thoughts, hope this helps ease the pain some: members.bellatlantic.net latimes.com The accompanying graphic is something I've kept on the wall next to my desk for decades--I received it so many years ago I've forgotten its source. It tells the story of the market's cycle: At the bottom of the curve (when stock prices are depressed) investors view shares with contempt. As the market rallies, investors first are cautious, then confident. At or near the peak, investors have total conviction about their stocks, and even when prices begin to fall, psychology remains complacent ("It'll blow over") Finally, when prices are down sharply, there is concern. As they fall further, concern turns to capitulation ("Get me out at any price!"). Which then leads to contempt--and the cycle starts over. Where are we now on the bell curve? With many stocks, I'd argue we're already into concern and capitulation. The bears say we've only crested conviction. Someone's going to be wrong. Could this be GMGC? Best Regards, John Madarasz