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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (52369)	10/4/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

George Cole... good points. Last tuesday; some of my fav's hit levels to where I as a trader; have to at least establish an initial position. I have buying power; cash & margin left- to where I will add and be 100% invested with some margin at about OSX 66-70ish - or those levels on my stocks that I listed. I have no problem with making a huge bet on those particular individual stocks at those prices.... those buy limits represent anomalies if seen; people will make serious money from those levels... This is the best position I have had yet this year; with still having some remaining buying power to follow a retrace here if seen. I'll be able to pick up some old fav's if seen... I think the E&P's will move solidly post Q3 reporting after we shake out the crude oil markets... nat gas has settled - buying the NAt Gas plays is fine here...into weakness. Crude needs to blow off a bit - the OSX will not follow in lockstep; as it is allready the reason for the OSX blowing off here... its priced in here.. that is why I am buying "Values" like MDR & GLBL & esv/flc here... and the E&P values like OEI UPR PXD... I like what I own here... I still think we will see OSX 100 by year end; we may not close there, but we'll touch it imho... only a total market blow off will stop that. Watch what another set of 3 Million BOE of API drawdowns does.... another 10M boe over the next month or so; and crude ramps again... $30 crude will be hit imho...

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (52369)	10/4/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 95453

Re: RIG: When I sold RIG on 7/30/99 at 31 and change (after buying it for 25 in May), I posted that I expected to buy it back in a while at 25. I don't think anyone on this thread posted that they agreed with me that that was a realistic possibility. The consensus was that oil prices would keep going up, and this had to pull driller stocks up. Remember, we were all chanting in unison, "it's the price of oil, stupid"? As it turned out, the consensus was half right. Oil has gone up, much faster and further that I (or most other posters) thought it would. But RIG is below 30, and showing terrible relative strength. It tried to establish a higher trading range, 33-36, but this has failed, and now I suppose it will go back to its old, lower range, which is 23-31. After rebuilding its base here, it may go back up, next year. Maybe. This assumes that the Fed doesn't raise rates 5 times between now and the end of 2000 (see my posts on the Market Direction thread for reasons I think this might happen), the price of oil stays above 18$, the market bubble doesn't get punctured, east asia continues recovering, the US consumer keeps spending, etc, etc. If those things go bad, we still might see the teens on RIG in 2000. And 30$ oil, at the same time, briefly. Now, RIG at 19$ and oil at 30$ is an anomoly, a contradiction, that can't last long. If that situation happens, I'm going to have some interesting decisions to make. Do I short oil? Do I go long RIG? Do I do both? And what are my endpoints for selling those positions (I decide my selling point before I buy, it keeps me disciplined)?.