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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (8514)10/4/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: James Clarke  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 78515
 
I never understood The Learning Company either. That was my big mistake on Mattel. At $12 though I don't think The Learning Company has to be worth anything for Mattel's core business to be cheap. Jill has got to go, and I think it will be soon. The acquisition gave away 31% of a pretty darned good company for a business of dubious value. Then management proceeded to disclose very little about The Learning Company's business for about six months before it blew up in their face. In hindsight, I probably should have seen it coming. But if I could invest with 20/20 hindsight, I would be a lot richer. For me Mattel was just the last nail in the coffin of my portfolio. This year, and especially the last three months, have been an unmitigated disaster. I have not even updated the value of my holdings in the last 3 weeks the damage has been so bad. My big winners in the summer (LKI, JRC) roundtripped and then some, and meanwhile I've got these internet shorts that have just added insult to injury. Fortunately I've been doing a little better professionally with other peoples money, with the glaring exception of Mattel. If my professional portfolio looked like my personal portfolio I'd have worse problems. Its just been a really really bad year, and my one forecast I can be sure of is that it will end in three months.

JJC



To: Paul Senior who wrote (8514)10/4/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78515
 
Paul, if the best earnings year was 4 years ago at $1.23, why does this deserve a P/E of more than 10-12?

If I thought the stock would do 18-20 in 2 years I wouldn't buy it.
A 50% gain in 2 years isn't enough for me to buy a stock. Considering the mistakes I make, I need a higher expected return to buy a stock. Are you just being conservative?