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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (28374)	10/4/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

d, i don't know if this is thee bottom, i just know it is a bottom, and has the posibility of rallying just like out of last october. I just use the clues the market gives me, and i can tell you just about everybody and his brother is scared poopless by that H&S pattern and in cash. If it goes the other way, they will want to jump back in, feeling sorry for the error of their ways -gggg- I believe ralphy boy may have been the poster boy for capitulation, though we didn't get the kind of bottom as last year, this might be enough. I re-created this graphic because i like it so much from a Sunday LA Times article by Tom Petruno: members.bellatlantic.net http://www.latimes.com/HOME/BUSINESS/t000088749.html ÿThe accompanying graphic is something I've kept on the wall next to my desk for decades--I received it so many years ago I've forgotten its source. It tells the story of the market's cycle: At the bottom of the curve (when stock prices are depressed) investors view shares with contempt. As the market rallies, investors first are cautious, then confident. At or near the peak, investors have total conviction about their stocks, and even when prices begin to fall, psychology remains complacent ("It'll blow over") Finally, when prices are down sharply, there is concern. As they fall further, concern turns to capitulation ("Get me out at any price!"). Which then leads to contempt--and the cycle starts over. Where are we now on the bell curve? With many stocks, I'd argue we're already into concern and capitulation. The bears say we've only crested conviction. ÿÿÿÿÿ Someone's going to be wrong.