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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66307)	10/4/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

i hope you are right

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66307)	10/4/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I believe you are right and deferred taking gains on October puts last week for this reason -- we may bounce around for a day or two, but I think we resume a downward course ...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (66307)	10/5/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz--On the subject of put/call ratios, I was examining decisionpoint.com's graphic where they show the cboe and the oex ratios relative to the NYSE composite. The ratios are presented in reverse form so that when puts to calls rise, the graphed number declines. This is another way of stating that we are actually looking at a call/put ratio. My view of these graphics is that the cboe could be seen as a leading indicator. Even in its 10-day moving average form, the cboe ratio seemed to have some ability to positively predict turns in market direction. I couldn't make any sense out of the oex ratio. Sometimes it seemed to lead and other times follow changes in market direction. Yet, it seems to me that we most hear about the oex ratio. If you have time, please take a look at the decisionpoint.com site to see if you agree with what I am saying. I have a general question regarding this material, namely, why do we often hear of the put/call ratio as being a contrary indicator? At least for the cboe ratio, it seems to be that the call/put ratio behaves procyclically with the market. We would expect calls to rise relative to puts when the market is going up and inversely when the market is going down. That is what I see and such behavior would not be considered a contrary indicator. When one considers that we are looking at a 10-day moving average, the behavior of the cboe indicator as a leading indicator seems to me to be even more impressive. Your comments are appreciated.