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To: keith massey who wrote (1067)10/4/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: keith massey  Respond to of 5053
 
I have got a couple of private messages asking about the selling from Georgia Pacific and Yorkton so I thought I would post a reply on the thread to save some re-typing.

I gave up a while back trying to figure out why someone would sell a stock right before it looks like it was going to go up.

I'll give you a very good example...AAD

To: Ed Pakstas (2677 )
From: keith massey Wednesday, Jun 30 1999 1:13PM ET
Reply # of 10319

In AAD at .46. Phone AAD for details (1-888-626-8223). They have been fighting for control of their 40% interest in a diamond mine in Russia for a couple of years. De Beers valued the mine at $6 billion. Three weeks ago AAD did a verbal agreement with AGD to get control of their mine back. According to AAD they are on the 11th draft of the agreement and this is the closest they have been to closing the deal. Annual general meeting for AAD is in 3 weeks and they have $12 million in cash in the bank and $3.5 in debt. Anything in Russia is risky but I am playing it as a risk/reward stock. I will dump at any sign of weakness.
**********************************

In the 12 days before I got in Canaccord was dumping like crazy. They dumped over 1 million shares in 17 days. I was asking myself....why would they be selling. Then I told myself...I know the story and I have done my research and Canaccord either must need the money very badly or is just plain stupid.

In the 7 days after I bought AAD ran from .46 to $1.50 on big volume before pulling back to the .80's. It is one of those weird mysteries....why did Canaccord sell right before it ran???

I know who Haywood is and why they are buying. For the looks of todays pattern Yorkton's selling may have finally stopped (next week will tell). As for Georgia Pacfic see the next message.

Best Regards
KEITH



To: keith massey who wrote (1067)10/4/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: keith massey  Respond to of 5053
 
I can only make educated guesses at where the shares from Georgia Pacific are coming from since I don't know for sure. If you go back over all records since Dec. 97 you will find that Georgia Pacific has bought 900,000 shares and sold 1,600,000. So as of Dec. 97 they have sold about 700,000 extra shares.

In mid-1996 we had a few groups take down large chunks in JDX.

The Robertson Stephens ~2,000,000
Altamira Managements ~1,600,000
Eagle Capital ~800,000
The Prudential Insurance Company of America
~800,000

These were converted right after JDX peaked and just before the large 2 year drop. Anyone of these groups could have been slowly unwinding one of these positions every since then. Why slowly unwind? I don't have a clue.

I am not really concerned about GP's selling for one main reason....THEY HAVE BEEN DUMPING FOR ALMOST 18 MONTHS.

This is the list of net selling by GP for the last 18 months


-57,000 April 98
-8000 May 98
-27500 June 98
-30000 July 98

147400 Aug 98
4000 Sept 98
-43200 Oct 98
-17150 Nov 98
-53200 Dec 98
-3400 Jan 99

68400 Feb 99
-158450 March 99
-28700 April 99
-60400 May 99
-112900 June 99
-161379 July 99
-76200 August 99
-205500 Sept 99


If they actually had inside information or were trading off information then this selling pattern makes no sense. When the shares hit their peak in April GP only sold 28,000 shares but they sold tons at the low and now??? Plus they didn't accumulate any at the bottom???? Haywood has bought tons at the bottom...sold a few at the top...and is now buying again. This is far more interesting to me.

To make things even stranger. For the three months from Jan-March 1998 GP bought 140,000 shares at an average price of .83. Over the next three months from April-July 1998 they sold 130,000 at an average price of .50. I know I am reaching here but the guys from GP just don't hit me as having any insider source of information.

Best Regards
KEITH



To: keith massey who wrote (1067)10/4/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: keith massey  Respond to of 5053
 
Just for a recap for people who missed the point a few posts ago and to indulge my creative writing side <ggg>.

In our corner we have Carlo Civelli. This secretive Swiss financier has been involved in some of the biggest promotions in Canadian in the past 20 years. His first big mark was made in Vancouver in 1981-82 when him and Doug McRae pushed Breakwater Resources through the roof. Over the years the number of Canadian companies he has ran up is countless (e.g NMR, SLU, AHV, UP, RDL etc.) plus several big U.S names (Intl Cablecasting and Novadigm). Some of these companies went on to very big things and long term growth others didn't fair so well in the long term. The last big promotion connected to Civelli is NIR. Prior to the promotion Mr Civelli's held approximately 2.65 million shares, acquired at 15 to 21 cents including a large private placement at .20 several months before the promotion started. In a period of two months from March to April 1998 Civelli was behind one of the larger promotions on the TSE that year driving NIR's price from .20 to $4.88. Haywood was part of the promotion team on that one.

So now we have:

Civelli through his personal account and his main Zurich-based financial company, Clarion Finanz AG owning 2 million shares.
His European buddies own 6 million
Haywood owning 3 million.

That is 11 million shares or 37% of the shares all associated with Carlo and most bought at or above the current price. Forgetting about Hinchcliff's and Staudt's 4.5 million shares just this 11 million share stake in this company speaks volumes of what will occur in the future.

Thank you for indulging me in my hyping <ggg>
KEITH

P.S I don't think that JDX will be just a pump and dump. I just believe through my experience that no company will move several multiples of their price without proper promotion.



To: keith massey who wrote (1067)10/5/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: Ritch D  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5053
 
...good work...you mention Europe...stock deals/promos/and CC and they are always interlinked...the real question is whether he has 'changed his stripes'??? I am very surprised at the lack of Cannacord trading...used to be very close to CC