To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12594 ) 10/5/1999 2:31:00 AM From: PatrickMark Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 28311
Michelle . . . er, . . . Lizzie, : )However I really do think that in the last few months cable as the preferred medium for delivering internet content has waned, in favor of DSL or preferably wireless. I think the Charter comm IPO will be hot, but nowhere near as hot had it been offered 5 mos ago... I realize you can say that about the entire net sector but specifically, in terms of cable it is more so, jmo. Very interesting to hear you say this, because I have been of the opposite opinion. It seems to me that 4 or 5 months ago there was much talk about uncertainty over whether DSL or cable would emerge as the dominant platform. (And I must qualify that I'm talking only about home connections, here . . . business, and even high density residential applications are a whole 'nother story.) Cable now seems to me to be the clearcut leader in the race for near-term growth. As users clamor for broadband, cable just seems so much more user- and technology-friendly than DSL. Not to mention more affordable, in many cases. I know there's frustration in the delays to infrastructure build-out, but the distance-to-CO restrictions for DSL are not quickly or easily overcome and affordable/operable wireless solutions seem to be a ways off. I am connected via DSL, V.90 and Ricochet wireless on the three different computers I use, and Ricochet is the most frustrating, just from the speed standpoint. I don't know of any other (affordable) wireless solution that will be available within the near-term, unless we're talking about cell phones and PDA's, which offer much less than full content, at this early stage. I'm looking at all this from the perspective of the masses, which is much different from a tech-savvy viewpoint. The other thing about cable that's important to note, IMO, is the role that television plays in the Wired World (broadband) strategy. From todays's press release, the statement by Charter's CEO:It will facilitate the offering of broadband content to every consumer and will not be limited to PC users. paulallen.com I've seen it stated even more clearly in other articles by Savoy and others that the convergence of internet and tv is a prime component of the plan, but can't find those articles right now. Anyway, my point is that if you're striving for convergence of these two mediums, internet-over-television (cable) is much more closely at hand than television-over-internet (DSL). As further evidence, note VV's investment in Tivo and Replay Networks. Regarding today's lack of GNET price action over the announcement, I share your opinion (and those of RTev and yzfool) that the Excite@Home situation could be hurting us. For those that haven't been following, this article summarizes fairly well the current state of affairs:msnbc.com It's pretty ugly, and these developments follow months of acrimony and political maneuvering between the players. As someone previously stated, there are many differences between AT&T/@Home/Excite and Charter/HSAC/Go2Net, but it's not difficult for me to envision that the general investment community is a little skittish about the role that content providers will play in the future, especially when you add in the open access issue. What I think will take a little time for Wall Street to sort out is the fact that the Charter content structure is unique (at least from what I can tell) in that Broadband Partners is a separate entity and truly a parternship. This is a much different animal than a situation with main players vying for control of content. Also, I don't think the street has clarity wrt the potential of Hypermart and especially the lead that Go2Net enjoys in this sector. I haven't seen it posted on this thread yet, but Excite@Work (just) recently announced their B2B program:siliconinvestor.com Here's the actual site:work.com (although tonight, the URL seems to be redirected . . . not the same page I saw earlier today). One final (unrelated) thought. This articles coins a new VC buzzword . . . "vortals" (vertical portals):seattlep-i.com All FWIW, PM