To: MARCIA J. SHATTAN who wrote (2978 ) 10/5/1999 1:25:00 PM From: FirstDiogenes Respond to of 3187
Marcia, $22 is expecting CPU to rise 266%. Probably unlikely IMO. As to the future -- its "CLICKS & MORTAR". The Net will change retail as we have traditionally known it but it WILL NOT eliminate bricks & mortar. That is the macro history of new technologies. Radio didn't kill newspapers. TV didn't kill motion pictures. Newspapers changed (no more evening editions, new forms like USA Today) etc. In a societal macro sense, what you have is a "zero plus" game. 1st, Society's capacity to adjust to useful new technology is infinite, for all practical purposes. 2nd, new technologies ultimately function more collabratively than competitively with existing technologies (the consumer tends to make room for and use of new technology because each technology -- new or existent -- has its pros and cons). If I want to create awareness for a new movie, I use TV advertising. If you want to find out where and when that movie is playing, you use the newspaper. CPU has to do 2 things, IMO, to give shareholders a double off of the $6 area. 1st, stop losing money -- they only have to wring out a 1/2 of 1% profit margin on their 6.3 Billion in current sales. 2nd, Operate an effective e-commerce web site for consumers and make sure that operation is efficiently integrated into its traditional store operations. Their net operation doesn't have to be the next YAHOO -- it just needs to be efficient, credible, and customer friendly. With the stock trading at less than 10 cents on the sales dollar, either current management will fix their non-rocket science problems, OR someone who can wring a profit out of $6.3 Billion in sales will buy them and do just that. (Maybe that's why the so called "South American Midas" just bought 14% of CPU. I'm long 8000 @$6.25 and will be a buyer again if it dips to 5 1/2 or 5 3/4 from here. I can wait a year or so,if need be, for a low end return that I project @ 50%. Sorry for the rant. Regards & Good Luck!