Yes, they were strong. I think the LEI may have come in low. The CNBC briefcase/ham sandwich indicator came in strong, also indicating 87% chance of a rate hike. The market is flying in the face of Al's lunchables.
Still getting a lot of new %K-%D oscillator buy readings. Latest were Automotive (AUX) and Securities Brokers (XBD). I still have about 3 new buy signals on individual issues for every 1 new sell.
REALITY CHECK: US RECRUITERS SAY JOB ORDERS REMAIN STRONG
By Gary Rosenberger
NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. staffing firms say job orders remain at very elevated levels with the only signs of slowing in information technology.
They say labor markets remain excruciatingly tight -- with one specific sector, namely nursing, leading to extravagant recruiting measures.
Some hospitals are so short on staff that they are offering immediate $5,000 signing bonuses, according to one recruiter.
While wage pressures continue to climb steadily, recruiters say they remain surprisingly controlled considering the ongoing, at times urgent, need for workers.
"There is still so much resistance from companies to raise wages," said Tim Doherty, CEO of Doherty Employment Group in Bloomington, Minnesota.
"A lot of companies choose not to fill orders rather than take on a major payroll increase -- it goes back to companies still not being able to raise prices to their customers," he said.
Doherty said he has received record levels of orders in the past three months -- with unfilled orders also at record levels -- a function of tight labor markets in the upper Midwest.
He hopes that things will loosen once the Minnesota winter sets in and outdoor work in construction and agriculture cools down.
Doherty, who last week attended a trade conference, noted that "the mood in the industry is very upbeat."
Fueling optimism in the near-term are expectations that the Christmas season will be stronger than usual because of the millennium -- "there's the attitude that it's going to be party time at the end of the year."
"But there are still the same concerns about the labor market being so tight -- although there is some easing in information technology (IT) as Y2K issues get resolved," he said.
"There was some concern about the effect of higher interest rates on the economy but nobody's seeing anything yet," Doherty said.
A national recruiting firm is seeing "more of the same" in terms of job growth, tight labor markets and wage pressures -- albeit with minor changes.
"The headline is 'More of the Same'; the subhead is 'Candidate Pool Extremely Tight'; the second subhead is 'Continuing Generally Strong Demand' -- with a couple of nuances," said Tim Fitzpatrick, a spokesman for CDI Corp. based in Philadelphia.
"There's no doubt that IT is slower as the work gets squirreled away," Fitzpatrick said.
"That has to be put into a context of continued growth -- just that it's slower growth," he added.
"Another nuance is that large corporate mergers are having a slowing effect on people's staffing decisions," Fitzpatrick said.
Nevertheless, he said overall "these continue to be good times."
He noted that considering the receding Asian flu that especially gripped multinational corporations, job growth is better than should have been expected.
"We're seeing job growth -- not quite as quickly as we would wish, but it's better than we thought it was going to be," Fitzpatrick said.
On the issue of wage pressures, Fitzpatrick described a "fairly steady ... but not spectacular" rise.
"Any time you're in a tight candidate market, you see wage pressures -- but it could have been a more significant factor than it is," he said.
He added that in "professional and financial ... there is very, very high demand."
Nursing is one profession where critical shortages are being met with hefty wage increases and rapidly expanding benefits and bonuses, said Joseph Boshart, president and CEO of Cross Country Staffing, in Boca Raton, Florida -- specializing in hospital staffing nationwide.
"The demand (for acute care hospital employees) is up roughly 40% year-over-year," Boshart said.
He noted that nursing shortages are particularly acute because of declines in nursing school enrollment, the negative impact of managed care on job satisfaction and unusually high retirement rates.
"In California, it's estimated that 50% of nurses will retire in the next five years," Boshart said.
The response has been generous in terms of wages and benefits, he said.
Boshart noted that at a recent job fair he attended, a North Carolina hospital offered $5,000 signing bonuses to qualified nurses.
Boshart's company has increased wages on the order of 6% to 7% this year -- "that's three times the rate of inflation," he said.
"We also instituted a 401K program with a 50% company match and a substantial retention program," Boshart added.
Cross Country jettisoned it's $800 annual bonus for a far more generous $1,000 for each year worked with a cap on $5,000 for five years, he said.
There are no signs of a loosening labor market -- not even for Information Technology, according to Marty Rome, a spokesman for Kelly Services Inc. in Troy, Michigan.
"I'm hearing anecdotally about Y2K work winding down, but they just go into other areas -- there are literally thousands of IT listings that we have available at any time," Rome said.
"The labor market is as tight as ever -- there is no indication of any letup," he said.
At the same time, wage pressures are being held at bay.
"It is constantly coming back to us that it is incredibly hard to raise prices because of tough competition -- and that continued improvements in productivity are offsetting inflationary pressures," Rome said.
"There are some wage pressures, but nothing where we would see it as a problem," he added.
However, Rome did note "some softness" in the "electronic assembly area in the third and fourth quarters" due to a "little bit of slowness in computer manufacturing."
An executive for a Chicago-based staffing firm also notes that little has changed in the job market during September.
"You tell me when we didn't have a tight labor market in the last three years," said Charles Sigrist, president of Stivers Temporary Personnel.
"Tight labor markets mean good times," he said, adding that demand for labor "is still very, very strong."
One unfolding trend he sees is that Internet job postings are drastically cutting into newspaper advertising, which he feels undercuts the Help-Wanted Index as a barometer of job growth.
"We have an Internet site, and we've had dramatic success in terms of the number applicants coming through the Internet," Sigrist said.
"It's got to affect the Help-Wanted Index when people see that they don't have to spend as much on the Internet as on newspaper advertising," he said.
The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release September jobs data on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. August non-farm payrolls rose by 124,000 compared to a gain of 338,000 jobs in July.
The unemployment rate in August was 4.2%, down from 4.3% in July.
Editor's Note: Reality Check stories survey sentiment among business people and their trade associations. They are intended to complement and anticipate economic data and to provide a sounding into specific sectors of the U.S. economy. |
