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To: Boplicity who wrote (1196)10/5/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: pat mudge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
Have you seen this? I'm going to request the executive summary.

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October 4, 1999

New Report Predicts Intelligent Optical Internet Market to Reach $7.6 Billion by 2003

Charlottesville, Virginia: Purchases of dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM) and optical crossconnects will grow to about $7.6 billion in 2003, compared to $3.5 billion today, according to the new report from ommunications Industry Researchers, Inc. (CIR), Wave Division Multiplexing, Photonic Switching and the Coming of All Optical Networks 1999-2000, Volume 1, North American Market Opportunities. This growth is expected to occur
as DWDM evolves out of being just a way of saving money on new fiber and, together with optical crossconnects, becomes an enabling technology for an entirely new type of network ? the intelligent optical internetwork.

It's the Intelligence Stupid

The new CIR report notes that "fiber exhaust" alone cannot drive the DWDM market forward. It claims that the long-haul segment of the market has matured, while the metro segment is somewhat over-hyped. CIR research indicates that most competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs) are still
finding it cheaper to install more fiber than buy DWDM systems. Meanwhile, the always cautious Baby Bell's and other incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) have also been treating DWDM with some caution because of worries
about alarm monitoring, protection schemes and other issues.

". . . Volume 1 reports that vendors are busy dealing with such issues and are also working hard to bring down the cost of DWDM. But the most important innovations will come from adding intelligence that will enable the interworking of DWDM transmission systems and optical crossconnects to create an all optical internetwork over which ATM, IP and other traffic will travel. In this new optical internetwork it will be possible to provision high bandwidth services in minutes, not months, turning the new optical technology into a revenue spinner for the service providers and not just a way of saving money.

CIR believes that as the optical internetwork takes on the role of a profit center and not just a cost center in the service provider network, the market for optical networking equipment will burgeon (see exhibit below.) Wave Division Multiplexing, Photonic Switching and the Coming of All Optical Networks 1999-2000, Volume 1 critically assesses the opportunities that will arise as the result of this transformation and provides a thorough examination of the commercial implications of the new generation of optical
networking, including a thorough review of the strategies of more than 40 vendors, including start ups and the optical network deployment of more than 20 service providers. Topics covered in this new CIR report include current trends in technology ? including optical access technology for the new optical internet ? and five-year forecasts of equipment shipments.

The Table of Contents for Wave Division Multiplexing, Photonic Switching and the Coming of All Optical Networks 1999-2000, Volume 1 is available at CIR's Web site (http://www.cir-inc.com).
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