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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (79718)10/6/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Bob Kim  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
What is your opinion on PCLN?

Glenn,

I'm not convinced that PCLN's current business model sustains itself over the long term. For example, re: plane tickets, I don't like the uncertainty involved in their system. I'd rather pay a known price for a specific flight. What are the real barriers to competition? There are and are likely to be a lot of competitors. I've always felt that CASH (a la MSFT) can be used to eliminate or at least damage first mover advantages, especially if the first mover isn't yet able to build a war chest, or if there is little loyalty involved in the products or services. But these things can take quite a long time to sort themselves out and Goliath doesn't always win. MSFT and CA didn't dethrone INTU back in 94, ORCL has survived MSFT's database efforts, and AOL has survived as well.

Right now, I don't see a lot of downside specific to PCLN. If the market tanks, I'd expect PCLN to tank as well. I'm still waiting for ML to start coverage again. The lower PCLN goes, the greater the chances, in my opinion, of an upgrade to Buy. I'd expect Blodget to be positive, especially since he already called UBID the best value on the net. I'm still holding a few shares that I picked up a few weeks ago when we were talking about potential ML coverage.

Bob